Texas vs. Oklahoma prediction: Who wins, and why?

One of college football’s most-storied rivalry games kicks off from the historic Cotton Bowl on Saturday, as No. 6 Oklahoma squares off against newly-unranked Texas.

Last year, it was the Longhorns who were making a good first impression as members of the SEC, but this year, it’s the Sooners who appear to be making a good second impression.

Texas, the preseason No. 1 team in America, was summarily voted out of the national rankings after falling to 3-2 with a loss at unranked Florida amid questions around an offense that has failed to perform to expectations as quarterback Arch Manning still searches for his identity.

No such issue for Oklahoma, whose blue-chip transfer John Mateer has proven to be a revelation for this offense. That is, until he suffered a surprise hand injury that required surgery, and puts his availability for this game into some doubt.

This season marks the 121st meeting in the Red River Shootout, a passionately-fought series that dates back to 1900. Texas owns a 64-51-5 lead in the rivalry, but Oklahoma has won five of the last seven games entering this weekend.

Texas vs. Oklahoma prediction: What to watch

Texas vs. Oklahoma football game prediction 2025 — Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

1. Anytime, Arch

This hasn’t gone how anyone at Texas hoped it would. The five-star, No. 1 overall recruit and preseason Heisman Trophy favorite with that famous last name was not supposed to be an unquestioned flop in October.

Missed throws? Holding onto the ball too long? Questionable mechanics? A throwing motion so awkward that it caused a viral fake injury rumor? Manning has it all.

Consequently, the Longhorns’ offense is in the bottom-half in the SEC in total production and scoring, especially aggravating in the absence of a consistent run game.

Manning has the fourth-highest turnover-worthy pass rate this season, according to Pro Football Focus numbers, is the third-slowest quarterback in America taking 3.24 seconds to throw the ball, and his adjusted completion mark is 89th out of 100 qualifying passers.

2. Battle at the line

Concerns around introducing a basically-new rotation this season have proven prescient, as Texas has struggled to maintain its composure on this offensive line, a unit that lost 100 starts this past offseason, protecting its young quarterback.

Oklahoma’s defensive front is one of the most productive and consistent in the country, and will present a formidable challenge for the Longhorns’ blockers from start to finish.

OU leads the nation with the fewest yards per game allowed (193), is second with 6.6 points surrendered on average, is tied for first with 4.2 sacks generated per game, and leads the nation with 10 tackles for loss per game on average.

Texas is relatively weak blocking on the interior with three different pieces inserted at left guard so far this season, but if they can hold down the edges at all, then Manning could potentially build some momentum testing a Sooner secondary that is occasionally susceptible to longer downfield throws.

3. Sooners’ contingency plan

In the event that Mateer either can’t play or will be limited because of his hand injury, Oklahoma will have backup quarterback Michael Hawkins ready to go.

He completed 14 of 24 passes for 162 yards with 3 touchdowns while rushing for a fourth score in a big win over Kent State, and while he has experience in this game, becoming the first OU true freshman to start against Texas, he’ll need some help.

That’s where things could get interesting, as Oklahoma comes into this weekend ranked just 97th in the country in rushing production, averaging just over 137 yards per game, and is just 104th in FBS by averaging 3.8 yards per carry.

Freshman back Tory Blaylock appears to have been assigned OU’s starting rushing duties despite the program scoring a key transfer in Jaydn Ott, who has been pushed to the sideline as he recovers from a lingering injury.

Texas has been formidable against the run this season, ranking 11th in the country by allowing opposing backs to average a paltry 2.6 yards per carry and just under 80 total yards on the ground per game.

Who is favored?

Texas is a 2.5 point favorite against Texas at the Cotton Bowl, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook entering the weekend.

FanDuel lists the total at 44.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Texas at -126 and for Oklahoma at +108 to win outright.

Texas vs. Oklahoma prediction: Who wins?

Texas has to generate more yardage in its perimeter passing attack, foregoing any attempt to attack the deep field right away and instead rely on high-probability throws to ease Manning into some kind of rhythm in the face of Oklahoma’s pass rush.

Florida’s defensive front played as advertised in its upset against the Longhorns, and the Sooners’ own front seven alignment is even better than that rotation.

Oklahoma has the bodies to prevent Manning from building enough momentum and stop the Longhorns from mounting a consistent threat running the ball, even if the Sooners’ offense has its own questions, making this likely a low-scoring game.

College Football HQ picks...

Oklahoma wins 23-16
In an upset
And hits the under

More: Texas vs. Oklahoma score prediction by expert model

How to watch Oklahoma vs. Texas

When: Sat., Oct. 11
Where: Dallas

Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network