Texas vs. Texas A&M prediction: Who wins, and why?

Texas A&M is undefeated through 11 games for the first time since 1992 and poised to play for its first SEC championship, while Texas is clinging by its fingernails to what remain very slim College Football Playoff chances.

Chances that realistically may already be gone given the Longhorns’ three losses, but beating your rival is its own reward, especially when you can throw a wrench into their perfect season and damage their playoff seeding.

Texas vs. Texas A&M: What to watch

Texas Longhorns vs. Texas A&M Aggies football game prediction 2025 — Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

1. Texas pass game vs. A&M pressure

Texas A&M plays behind one of the better fronts in the country, boasting a defense that generates steady pressure and holds opponents to the low‑20s in points per game.

Texas leans heavily on Manning’s arm and a near‑300‑yards‑per‑game passing attack. If A&M can pressure Manning, force him off his spot, and turn a couple of those past interception tendencies into takeaways, it tilts the game in the Aggies’ favor.

But if Texas’ protection holds up and its receivers win outside, the Longhorns can stress A&M vertically and keep pace with the Aggies’ scoring.

2. Battle in the trenches

Texas A&M runs the ball on more than half its snaps, but is going against a Texas defense that is top‑10 in rush defense, allowing under 100 yards per game.

If A&M’s offensive line creates movement and keeps Marcel Reed in manageable downs, the Aggies can dictate tempo and keep Texas’ offense on the sideline.

But if Texas wins early downs and makes A&M play behind the chains, the Longhorns’ defensive strength in stopping the run should emerge as a major edge.

3. QB decision‑making and turnovers

Marcel Reed has been efficient and explosive in an offense averaging around 40 points per game, while Manning gives Texas a high ceiling but has occasionally forced balls into coverage.

In a rivalry game with playoff and SEC title stakes, the key will be which quarterback avoids the back‑breaking mistake: red‑zone interceptions, blind‑side strip‑sacks, or short‑field giveaways.

Both offenses are good enough that even a one‑ or two‑turnover swing could decide whether Texas pulls the upset or A&M stays perfect.

Who is favored?

Bettors are still projecting a win for the Aggies, but are giving the Longhorns plenty of credit, expecting this to be potentially a very close game.

Texas A&M is a 2.5 point favorite against Texas, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 52.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Texas A&M at -134 and for Texas at +114 to win outright.

Texas vs. Texas A&M prediction: Who wins?

Texas vs. Texas A&M football game prediction 2025 — Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

Critics have warned that Texas A&M’s success has only come against the back-half of the SEC this season, and even some of those games have been closer than expected.

It’s true the Aggies have had some defensive lapses, and a Longhorn attack piloted by a more confident Arch Manning backed up by an intense home crowd could find some angles and create momentum that keep this close all night.

Still, the A&M defensive front presents a serious matchup problem against an inconsistent Texas blocking group, they have an advantage throwing the ball against this secondary, and are college football’s top-ranked third down defense, and by a good margin.

College Football HQ picks...

Texas A&M wins 29-24
Covers the spread
And hits the over

How to watch Texas A&M vs. Texas

When: Fri., Nov. 28
Where: Texas

Time: 6:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network