Tulane vs. North Texas score prediction by expert football model

Not only is the American Conference championship on the line, but so too will be a place in the College Football Playoff based on what happens between Tulane and North Texas.

As it happens, both teams will be piloted by head coaches who will be somewhere else in 2026, as Jon Sumrall will leave Tulane for Florida and Eric Morris is exiting North Texas for Oklahoma State.

But for now, both are still at the helm in their respective Group of Five positions angling for a shot at the final place in the second edition of the 12-team playoff field.

The current belief is that the American champion will be the preferred choice of the selection committee come playoff time and will earn an automatic bid as the likely No. 12 seed.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the SP+ computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Tulane vs. North Texas score prediction

The model is currently siding with the American team not ranked by the playoff committee, which would throw some disorder into the selection process next week.

SP+ predicts that North Texas will defeat Tulane outright by a projected score of 37 to 29, and will win the game by an expected margin of 8.2 points in the process.

The model gives the Mean Green a pretty solid 70 percent chance of total victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 387-365 against the spread with a 51.5 win percentage. Last week, it was 38-29 (56.7%) in its picks against the spread.

What the bookies think

The betting markets concur with this prediction, but are expecting the Mean Green to play a closer game against the Green Wave.

North Texas is a 2.5 point favorite against Tulane, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 67.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for North Texas at -138 and for Tulane at +118 to win outright.

What we think will happen

If North Texas can pull this off, it will be because of its offense.

Drew Mestemaker leads college football with over 3,800 passing yards and tailback Caleb Hawkins is responsible for the most TDs with 26.

Wide receiver Wyatt Young is third in FBS with more than 1,200 yards and North Texas as a whole is responsible for almost 47 points per game, the second-most in the country.

But the Mean Green have not been tested against the kind of slate Tulane has, and when it was, it resulted in their defense allowing 63 points in a loss to USF.

College Football HQ predicts: Tulane wins, in an upset.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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