Tulane vs. UTSA score prediction by expert football model

What could potentially emerge as a consequential game in the playoff picture kicks off on Thursday night as Group of Five rivals Tulane and UTSA kick off college football’s Week 10 action.

UTSA may not be in the running for a prestigious postseason placement sitting at 3-4 right now, but it could play a little spoiler for a team that is vying for that attention.

Tulane is perfect in American Conference play and has just one loss, by 25 points against playoff contender Ole Miss, and is hoping to elbow its way to the top of the American standings and make a case for itself before the CFP selectors this season.

Boise State, the Group of Five rep in the playoff a year ago, has two losses, so it seems like the winner of the American will be the selection this time around, provided it has just one loss, and what Tulane does here and going forward will play a role in that conversation.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Green Wave take on the Roadrunners?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Tulane and UTSA compare in this Week 10 college football game, and use it to lock in our own projection.

Tulane vs. UTSA score prediction

Predictably, the model is siding with the visitors in this Group of Five matchup, but in a game that could come down to the last play.

SP+ predicts that Tulane will defeat UTSA outright by a projected score of 31 to 29 and will win the game by an expected margin of just 2.0 points.

The model projects the Green Wave have a 55 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 234-230 against the spread with a 50.4 win percentage. Last week, it was 24-29 (45.3%) in its picks against the spread.

Who is favored?

The betting markets expect more from the Green Wave over the Roadrunners on the road, but not quite by a touchdown.

Tulane is a 5.5 point favorite against UTSA, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 54.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Tulane at -205 and for UTSA at +172 to win outright.

Our final word: How to pick the game

Tulane comes into this matchup with some important momentum, winning three-straight games, finding key rhythm with its passing offense led by quarterback Jake Retzlaff, and a balanced attack should challenge a UTSA defense that has struggled to contain opposing passing games.

Tulane looks like the more disciplined and efficient side here, with the steadier quarterback play and a defense that should be able to generate more pressure. But, despite their records, these teams look more even that most would suggest.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take...

UTSA +5.5
Tulane to win -205
Bet over 54.5 points

More: How to watch Week 10 college football today

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