Virginia vs. Duke prediction: Who wins the ACC Championship Game, and why?

Whatever transpires between Virginia and Duke in the ACC Championship Game will have a direct impact on the College Football Playoff field, whoever wins, whoever loses.

Naturally, the ACC itself is cheering for Virginia, given its win would put the conference into one of the guaranteed playoff spots as a Power Four league champion.

But should the 7-5 Blue Devils pull off the upset, then the selection committee could end up dropping the conference out of the final dozen and instead put a second Group of Five team in the field.

Virginia vs. Duke: What to watch

Virginia vs. Duke football prediction 2025 ACC Championship Game — Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

1. Virginia Passing Game vs. Duke Pass Rush

Virginia has proven able to protect Chandler Morris long enough for the passing game to operate at a high level this season.

The Cavaliers’ offensive line held up very well in the regular-season meeting with Duke, helping build a 31–3 lead on the way to a 34–17 road win, and there should be a similar matchup edge in pass protection for the rematch.

If Morris gets that clean platform, Duke’s defense will struggle to get off the field on third down.

2. Duke Explosive Offense vs. Virginia Front

Duke’s improved, big-play offense needs to stress Virginia a lot more than it did three weeks ago.

The passing attack, led by quarterback Darian Mensah, is one of the ACC’s most explosive units, with the Blue Devils’ best chance coming from hitting chunk gains and running the ball well enough to keep Virginia’s front from pinning its ears back.

Virginia’s defense dominated the line of scrimmage in Durham and has generally finished the year strong, but has been more vulnerable against better rushing attacks, so establishing a credible run game to set up those shots is a major swing factor.

3. Situational Football and the Rematch Factor

Situational execution in a rematch setting — third downs, red-zone trips, and handling game flow when the opponent already knows your tendencies — will be huge.

Virginia controlled those areas in the first meeting and has been strong in closely contested games, reflected in its winning record against the spread in games with one-score lines.

Duke tends to start fast and then wobble, while Virginia has closed the season by responding well in high-pressure spots, including the Virginia Tech game, so winning third down on both sides and avoiding turnover swings should let the Cavaliers finish drives more efficiently than the Blue Devils.

Virginia vs. Duke: Who wins the ACC championship?

Virginia vs. Duke prediction 2025 ACC Championship Game picks — Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Line: Virginia -3.5, 57.5

Duke might be a little tired of hearing about how they apparently don’t belong in this game, and it has the quarterback to force those critics to eat their words.

That, combined with a unit on the other side orchestrated by defensive strategist Manny Diaz, could make this much closer than some expect.

Still, the Cavaliers are working against a Duke run defense that is bottom-six nationally and Virginia still has a better class of playmakers to avoid the upset.

College Football HQ picks...

Virginia wins 31-23
Covers the spread
And hits the under

More: Virginia vs. Duke score prediction by expert football model

How to watch the ACC Championship Game

When: Sat., Dec. 6
Where: Charlotte

Time: 8 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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