Virginia vs. Duke score prediction for ACC Championship Game by expert football model

Whatever happens between Virginia and Duke in the ACC Championship Game will directly impact what the College Football Playoff looks like.

Virginia will be the likely No. 11 seed in the field with a win in this matchup, while a Duke upset would put the ACC out of the playoff entirely and create a path for a second Group of Five team to get in.

What can we expect as the Cavaliers and Blue Devils meet for the ACC title?

For that, we turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Virginia and Duke compare, and use it to lock in our own projection.

Virginia vs. Duke score prediction

As could be expected, the model is siding with the favorite in the matchup, but it could be close.

SP+ predicts that Virginia will defeat Duke by a projected score of 33 to 25 and will win the game by an expected margin of 7.3 points in the process.

The model gives the Cavaliers a 68 percent chance to take out the Blue Devils for the ACC crown.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 387-365 against the spread with a 51.5 win percentage. Last week, it was 38-29 (56.7%) in its picks against the spread.

What the bookies think

Bettors are projecting the Cavaliers will edge out the Blue Devils, but in a close game.

Virginia is a 3.5 point favorite for Duke, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 57.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Virginia at -186 and for Duke at +156 to win outright.

Virginia has a 63 percent chance to win the ACC championship, compared to Duke at 37 percent to pull off the upset, according to the latest figures on the prediction market Kalshi.

What we think will happen

Virginia built up a 31-3 lead in the fourth quarter before allowing Duke to score two late touchdowns the last time these teams met on the same field, so the Blue Devils could make this interesting.

Events in the ACC have been so unusual this season, like these teams meeting Charlotte for example, that you get the feeling anything could happen.

Darian Mensah has the potential to throw Duke into a close game and a defense led by Manny Diaz has the firepower to contain the Virginia attack for a time, but not the whole time.

College Football HQ predicts: Virginia wins the ACC championship, and covers.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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