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ACC champion could be left out of College Football Playoff in wild scenario

Joe Cox|
Duke and QB Darian Mensah could win the ACC... and still be left out of the College Football Playoff.
Duke and QB Darian Mensah could win the ACC... and still be left out of the College Football Playoff. | David Butler II-Imagn Images

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James Madison DukesSouth Florida BullsDuke Blue DevilsMiami (FL) Hurricanes

The College Football Playoff remains a work in progress. This shift to 12 teams has changed the landscape, and there's no reason to doubt that further change is plausible. But as things stand, the system still has some weaknesses. A segment on the Pat McAfee Show illustrated one potential issue, as the ACC champion could end up missing out on the College Football Playoff.

The recipe for chaos

The potential storm here lies in the implied winner of all four power leagues getting a Playoff spot. But it's not guaranteed-- the top five ranked league champions get CFP spots. While under any vaguely normal circumstance, that will be the winners of the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, and ACC as well as a random Group of Five league (probably AAC), there's no guarantee of that.

So the formula for trouble is this-- take a random winner of an otherwise weak one-big league. Add two competitive Group of Five league champions. Those two could then both pass the power conference team and leave them out of the CFP. That's exactly the scenario contemplated on the McAfee Show.

McAfee Show sees disaster

How the ACC could have a very bad Playoff

The ACC has been shaky all season, with CFP No. 15 Miami atop the league. But Miami has two league losses, while there are five ACC teams with a single conference loss. Duke, for instance, is 5-4 overall, but 4-1 in ACC play. If the Blue Devils win out and get a bit lucky across the rest of the league, an 8-4 Duke team could reach the ACC title game. If they win that game, particularly if they beat another unimposing team (perhaps, say, CFP unranked SMU), then a 9-4 Duke team might not be a top five league champion.

If South Florida, already in the CFP Top 25, holds on and wins out to claim the AAC and 8-1 James Madison wins out and manages to jump into the CFP rankings above Duke, then South Florida and James Madison would get CFP bids and the ACC champion would not. The league would be down to long shots on Miami or Georgia Tech claiming an at-large bid.

While most talk around the CFP centers around spreading to 16 teams, how to handle various leagues will remain a significant issue. Paul Finebaum created a mini-torrent of controversy by suggesting that the Group of Five does not deserve CFP representation. But the ACC might be headed for a second consecutive season with an unlikely champion that could muddle up the Playoff picture. So a pair of G5 teams is not out of the Playoff picture.

Barnett
James Madison and QB Alonza Barnett III could knock an ACC champion out of the College Football Playoff. | Matt Stone/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
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Joe Cox
JOE COX

Joe is a journalist and writer who covers college and professional sports. He has written or co-written over a dozen sports books, including several regional best sellers. His last book, A Fine Team Man, is about Jackie Robinson and the lives he changed. Joe has been a guest on MLB Network, the Paul Finebaum show and numerous other television and radio shows. He has been inside MLB dugouts, covered bowl games and conference tournaments with Saturday Down South and still loves telling the stories of sports past and present.

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