How preseason AP Top 25 college football rankings shape the national title race

Where is the best place to debut in the AP top 25 preseason college football rankings if you want to play for the national championship?

How the preseason AP top 25 college football rankings go on to influence the playoff and national championship picture. | Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images

Top 25 rankings can make or break teams in college football, even if the process is far from an exact science and constantly results in disagreement among fans and anger at pollsters.

But without those rankings, we would have little clear understanding as to how teams stack up against each other, or how to award places in the College Football Playoff.

More ... When do the AP preseason top 25 college football rankings come out

Early in the season, the AP top 25 preseason poll gives fans an idea of which are the best teams in the country, and from there, the CFP selectors reveal their own rankings to determine the playoff field.

But how important are the preseason rankings, really? Well, during the College Football Playoff era, they're actually a good predictor for whether or not a team will make the semifinal at season's end.

Contents

1. Preseason No. 1 rankings and the College Football Playoff
2. Where else should you be ranked?
3. But it's not just top ranked teams
4. Where College Football Playoff teams ranked in preseason Top 25
5. How AP preseason No. 1 teams fare
6. College Football Playoff games to date
7. Read more from College Football HQ

Preseason No. 1 rankings and the College Football Playoff

Of all the preseason AP No. 1 ranked teams during the College Football Playoff era, all but three have made the College Football Playoff.

2014: Florida State (made CFP)

2015: Ohio State (didn't make CFP)

2016: Alabama (made CFP)

2017: Alabama (made CFP, won title)

2018: Alabama (made CFP)

2019: Clemson (made CFP)

2020: Clemson (made CFP)

2021: Alabama (made CFP)

2022: Alabama (didn't make CFP)

2023: Georgia (didn't make CFP)

2024: Georgia (made CFP)

Ohio State in 2015 was the first preseason No. 1 team to not make the College Football Playoff, but it was close: the Buckeyes were in the top four rankings all season until Nov. 22, a day after losing to No. 9 Michigan State at home.

Alabama, the preseason No. 1 team in the AP rankings prior to the 2022 kickoff, didn't make the final four after losing two games during the regular season.

But notably, only one preseason No. 1 team has won the national championship in the CFP era: Alabama (11-1) made the Playoff despite not playing for the SEC Championship (it lost to No. 6 Auburn, the SEC West champion), jumping ahead of Big Ten champion, two-loss Ohio State.

Bama went on to win the national championship in overtime that year over Georgia (preseason No. 15), which also lost to Auburn in the regular season before winning the rematch against it in the SEC Championship Game.

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Where else should you be ranked?

Few teams get the honor of being ranked No. 1 in the country in the AP preseason poll, and it's clearly not a good predictor of who will win the national championship. 

So where else is a good place to be ranked? Let's take a look at where the College Football Playoff champions placed in their respective preseason polls.

2014: Ohio State (preseason No. 5)

2015: Alabama (preseason No. 3)

2016: Clemson (preseason No. 2)

2017: Alabama (preseason No. 1)

2018: Clemson (preseason No. 2)

2019: LSU (preseason No. 6)

2020: Alabama (preseason No. 3)

2021: Georgia (preseason No. 5)

2022: Georgia (preseason No. 3)

2023: Michigan (preseason No. 2)

2024: Ohio State (preseason No. 2)

If history is any guide, future national champions need to be ranked in the top five in the preseason poll. 

Or if you want to get really specific, taking all the preseason polls into consideration and averaging out the eventual national champions, the best place to debut in the preseason rankings is exactly 3.09.

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But it's not just top ranked teams

Sure, everyone wants their team to rank at or near the top of the AP Top 25 poll. But it turns out, being just average could also be a good place to start out if you want to make the playoff.

One team from outside the preseason top 10 generally had a chance to make the final four College Football Playoff rankings, based on the first decade of the CFP format.

Then, the expansion of the College Football Playoff from four to 12 teams changed everything by dramatically opening up the competition.

As a result, for the third time ever, some preseason unranked team qualified for the playoff, and for the first time ever, multiple preseason unranked teams earned a place in the postseason field.

What teams have made the College Football Playoff when ranked outside the top 10 in the preseason?

2015: Clemson (preseason No. 12)

2015: Oklahoma (preseason No. 19)

2016: Washington (preseason No. 14)

2017: Georgia (preseason No. 15)

2018: Notre Dame (preseason No. 12)

2020: Notre Dame (preseason No. 10)

2021: Michigan (preseason unranked)

2021: Cincinnati (preseason No. 10)

2022: TCU (preseason unranked)

2023: Texas (preseason No. 11)

2024: Clemson (preseason No. 14), Arizona State (preseason unranked), Boise State (preseason unranked), SMU (preseason unranked), Indiana (preseason unranked), Tennessee (preseason No. 15)

Of those, Clemson (2015), Georgia (2017), and TCU (2022) advanced to their respective national championship games. However, they are a combined 0-3 in those final matchups.

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Where College Football Playoff teams ranked in preseason Top 25

Let's take a look at where every eventual College Football Playoff team ranked in that year's preseason Top 25 poll. 

Preseason AP rankings for each team are in parentheses, and national champions are in bold.

2014

1. Alabama (No. 2)
2. Oregon (No. 3)
3. Florida State (No. 1)
4. Ohio State (No. 5)

2015

1. Clemson (No. 12)
2. Alabama (No. 3)
3. Michigan State (No. 5)
4. Oklahoma (No. 19)

2016

1. Alabama (No. 1)
2. Clemson (No. 2)
3. Ohio State (No. 6)
4. Washington (No. 14)

2017

1. Clemson (No. 5)
2. Oklahoma (No. 7)
3. Georgia (No. 15)
4. Alabama (No. 1)

2018

1. Alabama (No. 1)
2. Clemson (No. 2)
3. Notre Dame (No. 12)
4. Oklahoma (No. 7)

2019

1. LSU (No. 6)
2. Ohio State (No. 5)
3. Clemson (No. 1)
4. Oklahoma (No. 4)

2020

1. Alabama (No. 3)
2. Clemson (No. 1)
3. Ohio State (No. 2)
4. Notre Dame (No. 10)

2021

1. Alabama (No. 1)
2. Michigan (Unranked)
3. Georgia (No. 5)
4. Cincinnati (No. 10)

2022

1. Georgia (No. 3)
2. Michigan (No. 8)
3. TCU (Unranked)
4. Ohio State (No. 2)

2023

1. Michigan (No. 2)
2. Washington (No. 10)
3. Texas (No. 11)
4. Alabama (No. 4)

2024

1. Oregon (No. 3)
2. Georgia (No. 1)
3. Texas (No. 4)
4. Penn State (No. 8)
5. Notre Dame (No. 7)
6. Ohio State (No. 2)
7. Tennessee (No. 15)
8. Indiana (Unranked)
9. Boise State (Unranked)
10. SMU (Unranked)
11. Arizona State (Unranked)
12. Clemson (No. 14)

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How AP preseason No. 1 teams fare

While it's common for preseason No. 1 teams to make the College Football Playoff, those schools don't often go on to win the national championship.

How have preseason AP No. 1 ranked teams finished during the College Football Playoff era?

2014: Florida State (finished No. 5)

2015: Ohio State (finished No. 4)

2016: Alabama (finished No. 2)

2017: Alabama (finished No. 1, national champion)

2018: Alabama (finished No. 2)

2019: Clemson (finished No. 2)

2020: Clemson (finished No. 3)

2021: Alabama (finished No. 2)

2022: Alabama (finished No. 5)

2023: Georgia (finished No. 4)

2024: Georgia (finished No. 6)

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College Football Playoff games to date

2014

Rose Bowl — No. 2 Oregon 59, No. 3 Florida State 20

Sugar Bowl — No. 4 Ohio State 42, No. 1 Alabama 35

CFP National Championship — No. 4 Ohio State 42, No. 2 Oregon 20

2015

Orange Bowl — No. 1 Clemson 37, No. 4 Oklahoma 17

Cotton Bowl — No. 2 Alabama 38, No. 3 Michigan State 0

CFP National Championship — No. 2 Alabama 45, No. 1 Clemson 40

2016

Fiesta Bowl — No. 2 Clemson 31, No. 3 Ohio State 0

Peach Bowl — No. 1 Alabama 24, No. 4 Washington 7

CFP National Championship — No. 2 Clemson 35, No. 1 Alabama 31

2017

Rose Bowl — No. 3 Georgia 54, No. 2 Oklahoma 48 ( 2 OT)

Sugar Bowl — No. 4 Alabama 24, No. 1 Clemson 6

CFP National Championship — No. 4 Alabama 26, No. 3 Georgia (OT)

2018

Orange Bowl — No. 1 Alabama 45, No. 4 Oklahoma 34

Cotton Bowl — No. 2 Clemson 30, No. 3 Notre Dame 3

CFP National Championship — No. 2 Clemson 44, No. 1 Alabama 16

2019

Peach Bowl — No. 1 LSU 63, No. 4 Oklahoma 28

Fiesta Bowl — No. 3 Clemson 29, No. 2 Ohio State 23

CFP National Championship — No. 1 LSU 42, No. 3 Clemson 25

2020

Rose Bowl — No. 1 Alabama 31, No. 4 Notre Dame 14

Sugar Bowl — No. 3 Ohio State 49, No. 2 Clemson 28

CFP National Championship — No. 1 Alabama 52, No. 3 Ohio State 24

2021

Cotton Bowl — No. 1 Alabama 27, No. 4 Cincinnati 6

Orange Bowl — No. 3 Georgia 34, No. 2 Michigan 11

CFP National Championship — No. 3 Georgia 33, No. 1 Alabama 18

2022

Fiesta Bowl — No. 3 TCU 51, No. 2 Michigan 45

Peach Bowl — No. 1 Georgia 42, No. 4 Ohio State 41

CFP National Championship — No. 1 Georgia 65, No. 3 TCU 7

2023

Rose Bowl — No. 1 Michigan 27, No. 4 Alabama 20

Sugar Bowl — No. 2 Washington 37, No. 3 Texas 31

2024

First Round — No. 7 Notre Dame 27, No. 10 Indiana 17

First Round — No. 8 Ohio State 42, No. 9 Tennessee 17

First Round — No. 5 Texas 38, No. 12 Clemson 24

First Round — No. 6 Penn State 38, No. 11 SMU 10

Rose Bowl QF — No. 8 Ohio State 41, No. 1 Oregon 21

Peach Bowl QF — No. 5 Texas 39, No. 4 Arizona State 31

Sugar Bowl QF — No. 7 Notre Dame 23, No. 2 Georgia 10

Fiesta Bowl QF — No. 6 Penn State 31, No. 3 Boise State 14

Cotton Bowl SF — No. 8 Ohio State 28, No. 5 Texas 14

Orange Bowl SF — No. 7 Notre Dame 27, No. 6 Penn State 24

CFP National Championship — No. 8 Ohio State 34, No. 7 Notre Dame 23

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