AP top 25 poll: Week 10 college football games most likely to shake up the rankings

Week 10 of the college football season will not only have a significant impact on the AP top 25 poll and conference championship races -- as always -- but it is also the final opportunity for teams to jockey for standing in the first College Football Playoff rankings to be released Tuesday.

With that said, here are the seven games Saturday that could have the biggest impact on both the AP and CFP rankings.

(All game times ET; all point spreads via ESPN Bet)

No. 9 Vanderbilt (7-1, 3-1 SEC) at No. 20 Texas (6-2, 3-1)

Vanderbilt already has its highest national ranking since before World War II, having authored one of the great stories in college football this season. However, that narrative can still improve.

If Vandy is able to score a third straight win over a ranked opponent (after beating LSU and Missouri the last two weeks, it would remain in the SEC championship hunt and set itself up for a prime initial CFP ranking.

It's possible there is not much disruption ahead of the Commodores in the AP top 25, with No. 3 Texas A&M, No. 4 Alabama and No. 6 Oregon on bye and the rest playing unranked opponents, but Vandy could get the bump over No. 8 Georgia Tech (even if it stays unbeaten) with another ranked win. Meanwhile, a loss would knock Texas back out of the rankings and effectively eliminate it from the CFP hunt.

But what happens if the Longhorns win is where it gets interesting.

Texas may or may not have starting quarterback Arch Manning, who has been listed as questionable while working through the concussion protocol this week, but Manning has been such an up-and-down wildcard that it's hard to project how that even impacts the matchup.

Even with Manning, Texas needed overtime to get by Kentucky (16-13) and Mississippi State (45-38) the last two weeks, with backup QB Matthew Caldwell throwing the game-winning touchdown last Saturday after Manning had sustained his concussion.

If the Longhorns win, they could potentially jump into the top 15 depending on what else happens nationally. That would make the final stretch very interesting for a Texas team that was ranked No. 1 in the preseason, then written off by many after the 3-2 start, loss at Florida and Manning's pronounced struggles.

With a loss, Vanderbilt would probably fall four or five spots and need to win out to have a chance at a CFP breakthrough and exclamation point on this already historic season.

Texas is a 3.5-point favorite.

No. 18 Oklahoma (6-2, 2-2 SEC) at No. 14 Tennessee (6-2, 3-2)

This is a de facto elimination game for both teams, with regard to any CFP hopes.

Neither has a realistic path to the SEC championship game as is, barring an incredibly unlikely significant disruption at the top of the standings. However, if either can run the table — which means picking up multiple notable wins in November — either the Sooners or Vols could still position themselves for the CFP as a two-loss SEC team with a strong resume.

That's a big if for two teams that have each lost their two biggest games already.

In fact, Tennessee has yet to have a notable win. Beating reeling Kentucky by 22 points last week would qualify as its best victory, believe it or not. The Vols seem to be still getting credit for taking Georgia to overtime in a Week 3 loss, but they got beaten handily by Alabama (37-20) in their other game vs. ranked competition and only narrowly beat the likes of Mississippi State (41-34 in overtime) and Arkansas (34-31 at home).

Yet, every remaining game is winnable with New Mexico State, at Florida and home vs. Vanderbilt to close, so a CFP return is absolutely still on the table for Tennessee.

It is for the Sooners, but with a murkier path. After losing at home to Ole Miss last week, Oklahoma is already on the ropes and must win at Tennessee, at No. 4 Alabama in two weeks, and then at home against No. 19 Missouri and LSU after that. They've also lost their two biggest games — to Texas and last week against the Rebels — while an early home win over Michigan is bolstering their resume.

Realistically, either team should fall out of the AP top 25 entirely with a loss, but the SEC factor may keep them in regardless.

With a win, Tennessee could get close to the top 10 while Oklahoma could make a nice surge as well. Really, there's no reason these teams are ranked four spots apart as is. If anything, it should probably be the other way around, as the Sooners beating Michigan and Auburn (which was ranked at the time) are better wins than any the Vols have so far.

But Saturday will clarify all of that.

Tennessee is a 3.5-point favorite.

Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar and Tennessee tight end Ethan Davis — Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar (6) and Tennessee tight end Ethan Davis (0) | Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

No. 17 Cincinnati (7-1, 5-0 Big 12) at No. 24 Utah (6-2, 3-2)

ESPN's 'College GameDay' is putting its spotlight on this pivotal Big 12 matchup while taking the show to Salt Lake City on Saturday.

Utah is a 10.5-point favorite, but that only further underscores that Cincinnati may be the most underrated team in college football.

The Bearcats have won seven straight games since a season-opening three-point loss to Nebraska. They sure looked the part as top Big 12 contenders while rolling over Baylor 41-20 last week or dominating an overmatched Oklahoma State team 49-17 the previous game.

Cincinnati is led by veteran quarterback Brendan Sorsby, who is having a career year while passing for 1,843 yards, 20 touchdowns and 1 interception and rushing for 425 yards and 7 scores.

Utah is a tough opponent, though, no question. The Utes lost 34-10 in Week 4 to a full-strength Texas Tech team that looks to be the class of the conference, and then lost 24-21 at undefeated BYU two weeks ago. Otherwise, they've taken care of business and won every other game by at least 24 points.

Dual-threat QB Devon Dampier has 1,375 passing yards, 13 TDs and 4 INTs and has rushed for 442 yards and 5 TDs.

Utah probably doesn't have a path to the Big 12 championship game with two losses already and may not have one to the CFP either, as the Big 12 only sent one team to the playoff last year. But a convincing win over Cincinnati -- with style points -- would help as this is the last ranked opponent the Utes play.

Cincinnati is already probably under-respected even on this seven-game winning streak, so it wouldn't be surprising to see it tumble to the bottom of the AP top 25 with a loss. There is a lot at stake Saturday night in Salt Lake City.

No. 10 Miami (6-1, 2-1 ACC) at SMU (5-3, 3-1)

This is one of two remaining hurdles for Miami if it is to overcome that loss to Louisville and play its way into the playoffs.

The Hurricanes don't actually control their own path to the ACC championship game, so they can't bank on winning the league's automatic bid into the CFP. But getting to 11-1 would do the trick.

Miami looked back to normal last week in a 42-7 win at Stanford, but SMU will pose a much tougher challenge. The Mustangs were a CFP team last year but have fallen short of expectations in 2025, with non-conference losses to Baylor and TCU, and a deflating 13-12 loss at Wake Forest last week.

That last one -- on a 50-yard Demon Deacons field goal as time expired -- hurt the most as it was SMU's first ACC loss. Without that, the Mustangs still controlled their destiny to the ACC title game and a chance at a CFP return.

That looks unlikely now with Georgia Tech and Virginia unbeaten in the conference (the Cavaliers' early loss to NC State actually counted as a non-conference game), followed by a glut of teams with one ACC loss.

But officially, SMU is still in the hunt and will be playing for its season with home-field advantage.

Miami needs to get through both this game and its regular-season finale at surging Pittsburgh -- plus the ones in between, of course -- to ensure its postseason spot.

A win probably won't change Miami's ranking much if at all, but another loss to an unranked opponent (Louisville was unranked at the time, at least) would drop the Hurricanes quite a bit in the polls.

Miami is a 10.5-point favorite.

Miami Hurricanes quarterback Carson Beck (11) | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

No. 15 Virginia (7-1, 4-0 ACC) at Cal (5-3, 2-2)

Virginia is off to its first 7-1 start since 2007, but the Cavaliers aren't getting talked about as much as other surprise teams like Vanderbilt and Georgia Tech -- and with good reason.

The Cavaliers have been hanging on by a thread of late.

Their big win over then-No. 8 Florida State no longer resonates in a big way as the Seminoles have been in a free fall with four straight losses. Virginia followed that up with a 30-27 win at Louisville, which now looks even better with the Cardinals ranked No. 16.

But since then, Virginia needed a big fourth-quarter rally just to get past Washington State at home, 22-20, and escaped North Carolina with a 17-16 win in overtime last week when the Tar Heels decided to go for two points instead of the tie.

Virginia might be the most overrated team in college football and is on upset alert as it travels across the country to play a capable Cal team.

The Bears choked away a lead at Virginia Tech last week and have gotten humbled by San Diego State and Duke, so they are no world-beaters, but they're good enough to potentially put a scare into this Virginia team.

The Cavaliers would probably still remain ranked even with a loss, but it would greatly dent their chances for a CFP berth unless they won the ACC's automatic berth.

Virginia is a 5.5-point favorite.

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