ESPN Computer Model Predicts College Football’s Best, Worst Teams in 2026

With just days until the start of the 2026 season, college football’s most intriguing question may not be who can win the national championship, but which teams are poised to outperform – or fall well short – of preseason expectations.

Now, one of the sport’s most controversial prediction models has taken a closer look at the numbers, projecting which programs could emerge as the sport’s best teams and which could struggle in the season ahead.

The worst team in college football

ESPN Computer Model Predicts College Football’s Best, Worst Teams in 2026 — USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

That unfortunate honor falls on UL Monroe, which debuted in the No. 138 position in the inaugural ESPN power index college football rankings.

Just three times in the last 39 years at the FBS level, the Warhawks have finished a winning season, and head coach Bryant Vincent has won just eight total games, including a 3-9 effort a year ago in which his defense was outscored by 103 points in the second half and his offense managed just 16 points per game.

Aidan Armenta can make some noise at the quarterback position, coming off a 1,629 yard, 12 touchdown outing, and he’ll have help in a promising receiving group, but Monroe needs to beef up its offensive line and rushing attack to really move forward.

The Warhawks started 3-1 last season, but that loss was a 73-0 result against Alabama, a decision that undoubtedly severely tilted the power index model negatively, given it ranks teams by projected scoring margins, and they didn’t win a game after September.

The most average team in college football

Sitting squarely in the middle of the rankings among college football’s 138 FBS teams is service academy Navy, coming off its best two-year run in school history, winning 21 games over that time and an 11-2 mark a year ago.

Granted, the Midshipmen have to replace some key skill players from that team, but also returns some formidable talent on both lines of scrimmage, an experienced defense, and a schedule that gives them the possibility of taking a big step towards the playoff.

Navy predictably led college football in rushing again last season, stacking up 286 yards per game and scoring 41 times while averaging nearly 5.8 yards per attempt.

Ranking near the bottom nationally in passing, expect the Middies to once again rely on a ground game that had 300 yards in five games and 200-plus against all but its two other service academy rivals, all behind a strong line, but this offense will lose some 3,000 yards of total output.

The best team in college football

As in the Coaches Poll and the preseason AP rankings, Ohio State rounds out the basic consensus as the No. 1 team in the country, expected to be four touchdowns better than its opponents on average and make the playoff with 76 percent likelihood, according to the ESPN model.

Bringing back a Heisman Trophy finalist in Julian Sayin for a second year as the starting quarterback, and the consensus top wide receiver in the country in Jeremiah Smith, are two unbeatable foundations for the Buckeyes’ offense to make another run at the playoff.

Defensively, Matt Patricia more than proved himself as coordinator a year ago, but he has several key positions to replace with elite outgoing production, and Ohio State will play a much tougher schedule against six projected ranked teams, and four of those games – Texas, Iowa, Indiana, USC – are on the road.

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