ESPN Predicts Historic College Football Powerhouse to Win the Big Ten

It’s all the rage for Big Ten coaches to call their conference the best in college football after winning the last three national championships, and whoever wins the league this year will again be considered one of the favorites to go all the way in 2026.

Looking over the updated preseason college football rankings and projections from the Football Power Index prediction model, there’s a three team race to win the conference championship, with one national powerhouse taking an early decisive lead.

Who paces the Big Ten this year?

Sitting inside one month before the kickoff, the projections still clearly favor Ohio State to win the Big Ten championship in 2026.

Currently, the models forecast the Buckeyes will reign as conference champions with 38.8 percent likelihood, nearly double that of the next best team on the list.

What’s to like about the Buckeyes?

ESPN Predicts Historic College Football Powerhouse to Win the Big Ten — USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

More than anything, Jeremiah Smith.

Once again considered college football’s best wide receiver and arguably the single best player at any position, Smith, who will be playing his final season before becoming another OSU first rounder, can score from anywhere on the field and remains a mismatch dilemma for any and all defenders.

Having a Heisman Trophy finalist and former five-star prospect in Julian Sayin throwing him and these other blue-chip receivers spearheading the offense is another massive advantage that other programs would give anything for.

What to worry about?

College football’s top ranked defense from a year ago will look plenty different after losing key contributors like safety Caleb Downs, linebackers Arvell Reese and Sonny Styles, and linemen Kayden McDonald and Caden Curry.

But coordinator Matt Patricia still has plenty to work with, as senior lineman Kenyatta Jackson remains in place while Devin Sanchez and Jermaine Mathews, Jr. will be a solid pairing in the corners, while Alabama transfers James Smith and Qua Russaw are important acquisitions.

Ohio State also plays a harder schedule than in seasons past, facing serious road tests in Week 2 against an improved and revenge-minded Texas, away to national champion Indiana, USC, and to Nebraska, and also against Iowa. Oregon also comes to Columbus in early November.

Any slipups in those matchups could derail the Buckeyes’ national title ambitions.

Who can stop the Buckeyes?

At this stage, it looks like two other schools can challenge Ohio State’s title hopes.

Ranking second in the conference on that list is Oregon, which has a projected 24.2 percent chance to hoist the Big Ten trophy at year’s end, and how it performs in that game against Ohio State will go a long way in determining whether the Ducks make it to Indy.

Reigning national champion Indiana placed third as the other credible challenger with an expected 18.7 percent possibility to win its second-straight conference title.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and projections are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

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