Predicting the College Football Playoff top 25: Who is No. 1 in the first rankings?

As the selection committee meets for the first time, we predict the initial College Football Playoff rankings, with some difference of opinion around the top-five than the other polls suggest.

What the first College Football Playoff rankings could look like. / Ron Chenoy | Imagn

Until now, college football fans had to be content with just the AP top 25 and the Coaches Poll to get its weekly fill of the latest rankings, but as the calendar turns to November, this week marks the first time the playoff selection committee reveals its own judgments.

And those will be the ones that count, as the selectors are once again charged with shaping the actual College Football Playoff field and the national championship race.

This season has been defined by upsets, surprise contenders, and highly-ranked teams proving to be paper tigers, resulting in plenty of change in the weekly polls up to now, and leaving the selectors with quite a dilemma in assembling their own top 25 rankings.

Predicting the College Football Playoff rankings

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25. Tennessee. Look, this isn’t what we would do, but the committee will argue that an SEC team with two of its three losses coming by one possession against top-ten conference opponents still warrants a ranking. It doesn’t, but they might think it does.

24. Memphis. The committee has to be seen ranking a Group of Five team, and this is their best bet. The American is the best G5 conference, and while Navy is still atop its standings, their strength of schedule won’t warrant a ranking. Memphis also has a win over USF, the other American contender, making it the front-runner here, and would be the No. 12 seed if the playoff started this week.

23. Cincinnati. The Big 12 hopefuls had won 7 straight games and were just 3 points in a loss to Nebraska away from being undefeated before a bad loss at Utah.

22. Missouri. Two losses against expected top-15 SEC opponents help the Tigers, but the loss of quarterback Beau Pribula to an injury and four tough games left to play don’t.

21. Washington. This could be a 10-2 team if the Huskies can beat Oregon in the finale, which somehow doesn’t feel impossible right now.

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20. Michigan. They won three-straight since the loss at Southern Cal, and there’s a win over Washington that looks better each week.

19. USC. Wins over Nebraska and Michigan, both with winning records and the latter by 18 points, help boost the Trojans’ rep in the committee room.

18 . Georgia Tech. An 8-1 record looks good on paper, but the committee won’t have much regard for the Jackets’ strength of schedule, and even less given their loss to NC State this past weekend. The win over Clemson that got them ranked in the first place is worthless now.

17. Utah. There are two costly losses, against Texas Tech and BYU, but both of those are highly-regarded teams, and the Utes are averaging 45 points in every Big 12 win.

16. Miami. The head-to-head win over Notre Dame will count for something, but the Hurricanes have also dropped two of their last three, both to then-unranked teams.

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15. Vanderbilt. Two of those three wins against then-ranked SEC opponents don’t look so good anymore after they plummeted out of contention, and its two losses have come against prospective top-ten teams.

14. Louisville. A nice win over Miami and sitting just four combined points away from being undefeated have the Cardinals have a decent resume to build from.

13. Virginia. Sitting at 8-1 and undefeated in conference play, given the loss to NC State was a non-ACC game for scheduling reasons, the Cavaliers’ position in the league race could be a boost in the committee’s deliberations.

12. Notre Dame. Despite the loss to Miami and the 0-2 start, the Fighting Irish have done more since then, beating three teams with winning records during their six-game win streak.

11. Oklahoma. The losses to Texas and Ole Miss hurt the Sooners, but both are top-ten teams, and OU is coming off that big win at Tennessee shows this team can still win in big moments despite facing arguably college football’s toughest remaining schedule.

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10. Texas. Wins against ranked SEC foes in Oklahoma and Vanderbilt help boost the Longhorns’ reputation with this offense playing better at the right time, but future results against Georgia and Texas A&M will be critical for their staying power.

9. Texas Tech. Winning on the road against Utah is not something many teams have done, and that combined with a win over Houston, and ranking second in college football in margin of victory per game, are solid resume-boosters for the 8-1 Red Raiders.

8. Oregon. The loss to Indiana hurts, as does the Ducks’ relative lack of a strong schedule, and the win at Penn State, a jewel in their crown several weeks ago, is now basically worthless.

7. BYU. Being undefeated helps the Cougars, as does a win over resurgent Utah, and they have a chance to supercharge their strength of record if they can beat Texas Tech this weekend.

6. Ole Miss. Ordering the best teams in the SEC should be easy for the committee, given Alabama beat Georgia and Georgia beat the Rebels, but they lack a truly otherwise-dominant strength of schedule, just inside the top 25 compared to Bama and Georgia in the top-ten.

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5. Georgia. The selectors like one-loss SEC teams more than undefeated teams in other conferences, and the Bulldogs also have a win over then-undefeated and still top-ten Ole Miss.

4. Indiana. Technically the most dominant team in college football, ranking No. 1 in average margin of victory at 31 points per game, but not having a ranked non-conference win could put them behind the Aggies and Crimson Tide.

3. Texas A&M. A win at Notre Dame looks better each week and a dominant performance at LSU is solid even if that team has slipped for a team playing its best football in a generation, and is the last among the SEC that remains undefeated.

2. Alabama. You could argue no other team has this good a resume, beating four ranked opponents in a row in college football’s toughest conference.

1. Ohio State. It’s possible the Buckeyes will have just one win over a CFP ranked team (Texas), but the selectors should keep them atop the rankings given how well they’ve dominated their competition to this point.

More: When the College Football Playoff rankings come out today