College football rankings: ESPN updates Top 25 poll for Week 4

Coming out of the latest Saturday of action, let’s take a look at the updated ESPN top 25 college football rankings as we look ahead to the Week 4 slate of games.

There will be some change in the rankings this week after Tennessee dropped a decision against Georgia, as Notre Dame fell by a single point to Texas A&M, and presumptive ACC title favorite Clemson fell to 1-2 after being upset at Georgia Tech.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

Where do things stand in the ESPN top 25 college football rankings this week?

College football rankings: ESPN updates Top 25 poll for Week 4

25. TCU

Rankings change: Down 5

Win projection: 8.6 games

Josh Hoover had 4 touchdown passes as the Horned Frogs easily got past Abilene Christian, although not as easily as they did against North Carolina when they spoiled Bill Belichick’s debut. A non-conference matchup against SMU is next.

24. Arkansas

Rankings change: Down 5

Win projection: 6.3 games

An early 0-1 hole for the Razorbacks in SEC play after a closely-fought 41-35 loss at Ole Miss in which Taylen Green had over 300 yards passing and the offense accounted for 221 yards rushing with 4 touchdowns.

23. Illinois

Rankings change: Up 2

Win projection: 8.6 games

Luke Altmyer accounted for 3 total touchdowns, 2 passing and 1 rushing, and Kaden Feagin ran for 100 yards and a score to smash Western Michigan by a 38-0 count with the Big Ten opener at Indiana coming up next.

22. BYU

Rankings change: Down 4

Win projection: 8.9 games

Off this past weekend, the Cougars sit at 2-0 after wins over Portland State and Stanford, rank second in college football with almost 313 rushing yards per game and have surrendered 3 total points on the year.

21. Vanderbilt

Rankings change: Up 7

Win projection: 8.2 games

The ESPN rankings machine has been gaining a ton of confidence in Vanderbilt and it finally broke into the top 25 this week after a dominant 31-7 win on the road against South Carolina to improve to 3-0, and looking ahead, there is no reason it won't be 5-0 heading into the Alabama game.

20. Auburn

Rankings change: Down 9

Win projection: 7.5 games

The ground game carried the day for the Tigers, rumbling for nearly 200 yards rushing as Jeremiah Cobb went over 100 yards with a score and quarterback Jackson Arnold tacked on 2 rushing TDs to beat South Alabama with a date at OU next.

19. LSU

Rankings change: Down 3

Win projection: 8.1 games

Branded as one of college football’s two or three most dynamic offenses, that reputation is yet to reveal itself given the talent LSU has on the field, hence this noticeable drop in the ESPN computer rankings, but its defense did enough, picking off 5 passes and returning one for a touchdown in a 20-10 win over rival Florida.

18. Utah

Rankings change: Down 4

Win projection: 9.5 games

A strong second half performance for the Utes on the road against Wyoming, as quarterback Devon Dampier led four straight touchdown drives to pull away in a 31-6 result looking ahead to an important Big 12 opener against Texas Tech next week.

17. Nebraska

Rankings change: Down 5

Win projection: 9.2 games

For the second time in the 21st century, the Cornhuskers have defeated two opponents by 50 or more points after clobbering Houston Christian by a 59-7 count a week after pounding Akron 68-0 and now opens its Big Ten slate against Michigan next weekend in a much bigger test.

16. Indiana

Rankings change: Up 1

Win projection: 9.2 games

Curt Cignetti wanted to see more from his offense, and they delivered in Friday night lights, putting a 73-0 beating on Indiana State, as Fernando Mendoza hit 95 percent of his passes with 5 TDs and no INTs and the Hoosiers stacked up 301 rushing yards with 3 additional touchdowns heading into the Big Ten opener against Illinois.

15. Texas A&M

Rankings change: None

Win projection: 8.8 games

No change for the Aggies in the rankings despite a signature win on the road at Notre Dame, and to add insult to injury, the ESPN computer wizards still put them behind the Irish team they beat, given they project A&M is still a half-point worse than ND against what they call average opponents.

14. Notre Dame

Rankings change: Down 4

Win projection: 8.0 games

The Golden Domers are officially in trouble, falling into a very costly 0-2 hole after a one-point defeat at home to Texas A&M, their second loss to a ranked team in as many games after the opener at Miami, and suddenly their playoff hopes are in serious peril.

13. Oklahoma

Rankings change: Up 10

Win projection: 8.1 games

Coming off that signature win against Michigan last week, the Sooners responded well in a 42-3 thumping on the road against Temple, as John Mateer had 282 yards passing and OU combined for 228 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns with a date against Auburn next.

12. Missouri

Rankings change: Up 1

Win projection: 8.7 games

It’s time to start paying attention to Missouri after Beau Pribula put up 3 all-purpose touchdowns and Ahmad Hardy ran for 250 yards and 3 more scores in a dominant 52-10 win against Louisiana at home, with the SEC opener against South Carolina next.

11. Miami

Rankings change: Up 11

Win projection: 10.9 games

Carson Beck hit 82 percent of his passes with 4 total touchdowns and the Hurricanes racked up 205 yards on the ground, including Mark Fletcher’s 3 touchdown runs, to smash up then-undefeated and ranked USF by a 49-12 count at home with a date against Florida next weekend.

10. Michigan

Rankings change: Up 19

Win projection: 8.4 games

The ESPN rankings, based in part on scoring margins, fell in love with Michigan this week, as the Wolverines backs ran for 8 scores on nearly 400 yards to pound Central Michigan by a 63-3 count, a 60-point victory that is Michigan’s largest in any game since 1922. UM goes to Nebraska next.

9. Tennessee

Rankings change: None

Win projection: 8.6 games

No change for the Vols in the ESPN rankings after a close, 3-point loss to Georgia. Joey Aguilar had a brilliant early start in his first SEC game, putting up 4 touchdown passes against a good defense and rushing for a fifth, but also had 2 interceptions and the Vols couldn’t kick a would-be game-winner in an eventual 3-point loss to their rivals.

8. Ole Miss

Rankings change: None

Win projection: 10.0 games

Trinidad Chambliss stepped in for the injured Austin Simmons, going 21 of 29 for 353 yards with a touchdown and the Rebels scored 2 times on the ground in a hectic 41-35 win over Arkansas to move to 2-0 in SEC play heading into a matchup against Tulane.

7. Penn State

Rankings change: None

Win projection: 9.7 games

Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen combined for 170 yards and 3 touchdowns and the Nittany Lions’ defense turned an interception into a touchdown to put away Villanova by a 52-6 count, but there are still questions around some of Drew Allar’s decision making heading into an idle week with Oregon on the other side of it.

6. Texas

Rankings change: Down 4

Win projection: 8.5 games

Arch Manning was on the receiving end of some boos from the home fans as he completed just 11 passes for 114 yards with a touchdown and an interception in a 17-point win over UTEP, a game in which Malachi Nelson, another former No. 1 quarterback prospect, almost doubled Manning’s yardage output.

5. USC

Rankings change: None

Win projection: 9.7 games

Jayden Maiava was held out of the end zone while covering 282 yards passing, but the Trojans ran for 2 touchdowns and defensive tackle Jamaal Jarrett ran a fumble 70 yards for a score to put away Purdue and move to 3-0.

4. Georgia

Rankings change: Up 2

Win projection: 10.1 games

The reigning SEC champions endured an early deficit, scored 20 unanswered points, and came through with the game-winning touchdown in overtime to take down rival Tennessee for a ninth-straight year and stay undefeated. Alabama comes to Athens in two weeks’ time.

3. Alabama

Rankings change: Up 1

Win projection: 8.6 games

Ty Simpson was good for 82 percent of his throws with 4 touchdowns and no picks and wideout Ryan Williams scored twice off 5 catches for 165 yards as the Crimson Tide put away Big Ten visitor Wisconsin to improve to 2-1 heading into an idle weekend before a marquee road game against Georgia on Sept. 27.

2. Ohio State

Rankings change: Up 1

Win projection: 10.6 games

Julian Sayin threw 3 touchdown passes and covered almost 350 yards and Jeremiah Smith scored twice off a personal-best 9 catches for 153 yards, even if the Buckeyes played this a little close against Ohio. This was a 13-9 game in the third quarter before OSU pulled away to score 24 unanswered points.

1. Oregon

Rankings change: None

Win projection: 10.6 games

Dante Moore was good for 80 percent of his pass attempts for a touchdown and the Ducks rushed for another 3 scores in a flawless 34-14 win with no penalties at Northwestern to begin 1-0 in Big Ten play before a home game against Oregon State leads into a trip to Penn State in two weeks.

College football rankings: ESPN updates Top 25 poll for Week 4

25. TCU

24. Arkansas

23. Illinois

22. BYU

21. Vanderbilt

20. Auburn

19. LSU

18. Utah

17. Nebraska

16. Indiana

15. Texas A&M

14. Notre Dame

13. Oklahoma

12. Missouri

11. Miami

10. Michigan

9. Tennessee

8. Ole Miss

7. Penn State

6. Texas

5. USC

4. Georgia

3. Alabama

2. Ohio State

1. Oregon

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