College football rankings: Predicting the AP top 25 poll for Week 5

As we survey the damage from another very active Saturday of games across the country, let's look ahead to the AP top 25 college football rankings for Week 5

Who's moving up? Who's moving down?

Note: this isn't our ranking of the best teams, but our prediction for how top 25 voters will slot them in the official poll

Predicting the AP top 25 college football rankings for Week 5

25. TCU. Josh Hoover threw 5 touchdown passes as the Horned Frogs got past SMU in the Iron Skillet game and improved to 3-0. TCU placed 30th in the rankings last week by receiving 67 votes, but could have done enough, combined with other ranked teams losing, to make a jump.

24. BYU. A double-digit win at East Carolina moves the Cougars to 3-0 in non-conference games ahead of the Big 12 opener at Colorado, and critical games up ahead against three opponents that are currently ranked. AP voters gave BYU 94 votes a week ago, just outside the rankings, but that could change this time around with other losers potentially falling out.

23. USC. Apart from a six-minute stretch where their defense let Sparty score 14 unanswered points, and one late score the other way, the Trojans basically controlled proceedings in a 45-31 victory at home against Michigan State to move to 2-0 in Big Ten play with a date at Illinois next.

22. Notre Dame. Jadarian Price and Jeremiyah Love combined for 5 rushing touchdowns and the Irish ran for 257 yards, but they still let Purdue score 30 points in a weather-delayed game, leaving some lingering doubts about the cohesion of this defense going forward with a date at Arkansas and its potent offense next weekend.

21. Illinois. There will be AP top 25 voters who drop the Illini from their ballots entirely after being exposed in a 63-10 loss at Indiana. Nothing worked for this team. Its offense had 2 rushing yards and saw Luke Altmyer sacked 7 times.

20. Missouri. Beau Pribula threw 1 touchdown pass while Mizzou’s ground game smashed through for 285 yards and 2 scores, while the Tigers’ defense held South Carolina’s rushing attack to minus-9 yards to improve to 4-0 in their conference opener, sinking the Gamecocks to 0-2 in SEC play.

19. Michigan. Justice Haynes ran for 149 yards and a touchdown as the Wolverines tacked on 286 rushing yards and 2 other scores to put away undefeated Nebraska on the road in a statement 3-point victory that proves Michigan will be a force to reckon with in the Big Ten, and get a little nudge from the AP top 25 voters this week.

18. Vanderbilt. Talk about a revenge game. Georgia Southern pulled off the upset in this series a year ago, but the Commodores responded by hanging 70 on the Panthers, rushing for 8 touchdowns and moving to 4-0 for the first time since 2008. Utah State is next before a road trip to Alabama.

17. Georgia Tech. Coming off that big win over Clemson that found the Jackets ranked, they responded with a 45-24 win over Temple to improve to 4-0, rushing for 307 combined yards and 4 touchdowns on the ground with a date at Wake Forest next.

16. Tennessee. Big Orange stayed put at 15 in last week’s rankings, but could move up after a 56-24 beatdown against UAB in which Joey Aguilar had 3 touchdowns and the Vols ran for another 4 scores before taking their foot off the pedal in the second half. UT goes to Mississippi State next.

15. Alabama. Outscoring their last two opponents 111-14, the Crimson Tide seem to have recovered from the season-opening loss, but who they played those two times out pales in comparison to what they face coming out of the idle weekend, booking a trip on the road against Georgia between the hedges in another prove-it moment for Kalen DeBoer.

14. Ole Miss. This looked like an interesting matchup on paper against a good-looking Tulane squad, but the Rebels proved otherwise, pounding the Green Wave in a 45-10 shellacking as Trinidad Chambliss threw 2 touchdowns and Kewan Lacy ran for 2 more scores, enabling Ole Miss to move into the top 10 of this week’s rankings.

13. Iowa State. Idle this past weekend, the Cyclones are perfect through four games, but statistically speaking are still a very average team heading into a Big 12 matchup against Arizona and not projected to play another ranked team the rest of the season.

12. Texas A&M. Undefeated through three games and resting this weekend, the Aggies have eclipsed 40 points in every game they’ve played so far behind a passing offense that ranks 17th in the country and jumped 6 places in last week’s rankings after a signature, last-second win at Notre Dame the week before.

11. Texas Tech. Facing a critical test against what was branded as a solid Utah squad, the Red Raiders passed with flying colors, showing off that brand new defense by holding the Utes to 10 points in a road win, while backup quarterback Will Hammond helped revive the offense with 2 touchdowns in a signature 34-10 victory that was never in doubt.

10. Indiana. Fernando Mendoza was on fire, hitting 21 of 23 passes for 267 yards with 5 touchdowns and no picks while the Hoosiers rumbled for 312 yards on the ground with 3 more scores in a 63-10 blitzkrieg against then-No. 9 Illinois. Expect a decent jump for IU, which has so far proved it’s no one-year wonder.

9. Texas. Arch Manning looked more comfortable while completing 18 of his 21 pass attempts for over 300 yards with 3 TDs and no turnovers, rushing for 2 more touchdowns in a 55-0 victory over Sam Houston with the SEC opener at Florida up next for the Longhorns.

8. Oklahoma. We should see the Sooners catapult into the top 10 of this week’s rankings after beating Auburn on the back of a ferocious defensive effort that included 10 sacks. OU now has two wins against ranked opponents and could theoretically move higher, but it might be hard to pry votes away from Oregon and Florida State.

7. Florida State. As expected, the Seminoles pounded Kent State by a 66-10 count, but in the process saw quarterback Tommy Castellanos leave the game with a lower body injury. The ACC opener at Virginia is up next.

6. Oregon. Dante Moore pitched another superb game, hitting 21 of 31 passes for 305 yards with 4 touchdown passes and no interceptions as the Ducks gained nearly 600 total yards to smash Oregon State. One AP voter gave Oregon a first-place vote in last week’s rankings, and they should keep it while staying in the top six.

5. Georgia. Off on Saturday, the reigning SEC champions return on a high note after beating Tennessee for the ninth-straight time last weekend heading into a marquee primetime matchup against resurgent Alabama next time out. What happens there could have a direct effect on who plays in Atlanta and beyond.

4. Miami. This offense played it closer than many expected against the reeling Gators, but Carson Beck and the Hurricanes hunkered down on a late 80-yard scoring drive over half the fourth quarter to set up Charmar Brown’s 1-yard score to pull away late.

3. LSU. Garrett Nussmeier had 3 touchdown passes and the Tigers added 4 rushing touchdowns in a rout over SE Louisiana to improve to 4-0, but a tougher test awaits on the road against undefeated Ole Miss next weekend.

2. Penn State. Predictably, the Nittany Lions’ defense has been strong, holding opponents to 5.7 points this season, ranking third nationally, but the vertical game is still a puzzle, sitting at 53rd in FBS, something for Drew Allar to work on coming out of the idle week on Saturday and looking ahead to that monster game against Oregon.

1. Ohio State. Idle this past weekend, the Buckeyes are a cinch to stay at No. 1 in the rankings after securing 55 first-place votes in last week’s poll. The reigning national champions go on the road against Washington in their Big Ten debut next Saturday.

Dropping out: No. 16 Utah, No. 22 Auburn

Predicting the AP top 25 college football rankings for Week 5

Read more from College Football HQ