ESPN predicts college football's 12 national title contenders entering Week 3

Heading into another active weekend of college football this coming Saturday, the experts over at ESPN have compiled their updated list of those 12 teams in prime position to get into the playoff and make a run for the national championship.

Some notable upsets defined college football’s second week of action, including a shocker at Florida in a loss to USF, and Arizona State’s playoff hopes taking an early hit with a loss at unranked Mississippi State.

Michigan played it close against Oklahoma on the road, but was unable to get around the Sooners’ new-look defense or ultimately stop John Mateer, OU’s new star quarterback, giving the SEC a boost over the Big Ten in the early action.

Where does that leave things in the early playoff and national championship conversation?

Let’s take a look at how ESPN analysts rate what college football’s 12 highest-ranked teams look like as we head into Week 3, and what the playoff committee’s top dozen would be today.

1. Ohio State

ESPN predicts college football's 12 national title contenders — Samantha Madar/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

AP ranking: No. 1

The consensus No. 1 seed in this year’s playoff, at least in the early going, appears to be the reigning national champion Buckeyes, who through two games, already boast arguably the most impressive win of any team in the country.

That’s when they took down Arch Manning and then-No. 1 Texas in the Horseshoe, winning a rematch of last year’s semifinal game, and giving the Big Ten title hopefuls an early foundation to build from, but there are more tests ahead still to come.

2. Miami

AP ranking: No. 5

The new favorite in the ACC Championship picture after the Hurricanes’ signature victory over ranked Notre Dame in the opener, and after former conference fave Clemson lost to LSU in the opener and looked listless in a close win over Troy.

Miami now boasts a 46.5 percent chance to win the ACC title this season, the highest mark of any team in the conference, and has a 14.6 percent shot at finishing the season as one of the committee’s top-four teams that would earn a first-round bye.

3. LSU

AP ranking: No. 3

That win over Clemson proved to be a showcase for a defense that has been on the receiving end of some criticism heading into the season, but after some key offseason investments looks like one of the most improved units in the country.

LSU has a coveted road victory over a likely CFP top 25 team in its back pocket to help out when the selectors consider schedule quality, and those are hard to come by.

4. Florida State

AP ranking: No. 10

Coming off a marquee upset over then-No. 8 Alabama in the opener and following that up with a 77-3 blitzkrieg over East Texas A&M, suddenly the Seminoles have already matched last season’s win total and left the 2024 campaign a distant memory.

Tough games against Miami and Florida are still to come, and the Seminoles have a date against Clemson, a game the ESPN computers still favor the Tigers in, but the ingredients are there for this team to stay among the top dozen all year.

5. Oregon

AP ranking: No. 4

Oregon has done everything it’s supposed to do up to now, which is win and win handily, and few teams were more dominant, even in a weekend full of routs, than the Ducks in a 69-3 destruction of Oklahoma State at home.

But a key test for Oregon in the eyes of the selection committee comes later this month when it goes on the road against Big Ten title contender Penn State. What happens there will go a long way in creating a lasting impression of this team in the selectors’ eyes.

6. Penn State

AP ranking: No. 2

Another on that short list of the Big Ten’s playoff contenders, the Nittany Lions discarded Nevada and FIU in short order, but it’s hard to say the offense really impressed anyone with their performance in those matchups.

That’s still something of a knock on this team, even after scoring key transfers at wide receiver, and there are key tests coming against Oregon and Ohio State that this team needs to win in order to brush off the narrative they can’t win the big ones.

7. Tennessee

AP ranking: No. 15

No Nico, no problem. As the Vols’ former starting quarterback languishes in obscurity at 0-2 UCLA, Joey Aguilar looks the part in his place piloting this offense so far, putting up 45 points in a win over Syracuse and then 72 in a romp over ETSU.

Tennessee has a 51 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff, according to ESPN’s computers, ranking eighth nationally, and there’s a huge game against rival Georgia coming on Rocky Top this week to help sort things out in the SEC.

8. Georgia

AP ranking: No. 6

Games against Marshall and Austin Peay have predictably been wins, but they haven’t been by the kind of margins you expect Georgia to be winning against this competition.

Still, the Bulldogs have the best shot at 79.7 percent to earn the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff and a 50.7 percent chance to get a first-round bye, according to ESPN’s models, heading into a road date against Tennessee.

9. Texas

AP ranking: No. 7

The former consensus top team in college football is now projected as the No. 9 seed in the latest projections after that loss at Ohio State gave everyone a sour first impression of what Arch Manning can do in charge of this offense.

He had a predictably better showing against San Jose State, accounting for 5 total touchdowns, but questions remain about his accuracy and mechanics. Texas is not favored against Georgia right now on the ESPN projection tables.

10. Notre Dame

AP ranking: No. 8

Not the best impression to start out for college football’s national title runner-up in the opener, dropping a 3-point decision at Miami, but new quarterback CJ Carr did have some good moments for this offense to build on.

Now comes another tough out following the Irish’s early idle weekend, returning home to face off against SEC hopeful Texas A&M and its potent offense led by quarterback Marcel Reed and some quality transfer receivers.

11. Illinois

AP ranking: No. 9

Going on the road against a Power Four opponent is the kind of stuff the selection committee likes to see, and Illinois passed a key test by taking out Duke by a 45-19 count.

And going forward, the Illini don’t have to play a lot of the Big Ten’s toughest teams like Oregon, Michigan, or Penn State, but they do get Ohio State in the middle of October, a game the ESPN models like the Buckeyes in by an 82 percent margin.

12. Oklahoma

AP ranking: No. 13

With so many questions around what this Oklahoma team would look like after a 6-7 outing, the early returns suggest something good happened over the offseason, especially by acquiring transfer quarterback John Mateer.

He was responsible for 3 all-purpose touchdowns and lit fire under this offense, while the Sooners’ defensive front, now under the direct leadership of head coach Brent Venables, proved a credible challenge to Michigan in a key home win against a ranked Power Four team the committee will appreciate.

But a big game against Texas, which the ESPN model still likes the Longhorns by 83 percent, kicks off a brutal second-half schedule that includes games against seven straight ranked opponents all the way to the finale. They’ll have to earn it.