Oklahoma upsets Alabama: What it means for the College Football Playoff

November football got weird in the SEC as Oklahoma took out Alabama in a major road test, throwing a little confusion into the College Football Playoff picture as Selection Day nears.

Where things stand in the College Football Playoff picture after Oklahoma took out Alabama in a huge road upset. | Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Not long ago, obituaries were being prepared for Oklahoma’s season, sitting at two losses and facing arguably the toughest second-half schedule in college football.

But after taking out a second SEC opponent on the road in as many games, suddenly the Sooners and their ferocious defense are sitting on the cusp of the College Football Playoff.

And with its first home loss in Kalen DeBoer’s tenure, Alabama finds itself potentially on the verge of getting bounced from the field after playing so well most of the season.

Fourth-ranked Alabama stumbled and fumbled at home against No. 11 Oklahoma by a 23-21 count that could have a major influence on what the selection committee is thinking when it convenes to craft the next rankings and bracket projection this week.

Where do these SEC contenders stand in the latest College Football Playoff projections?

What the models are projecting

With its win, Oklahoma saw its chances improve to 55 percent to make the field, while Alabama’s shot at the playoff fell to 86 percent, according to the latest calculations by the College Football Power Index computer prediction model.

Had the Tide won, they would have had a 99 percent chance to make the playoff. And if the Sooners lost, their chances would plummet to 11 percent, according to the index.

That model uses data points from both teams in a given matchup to simulate games 20,000 times and create predictions for their future.

And that’s something that the model has been right on most of the time, coming out correct on more than 73 percent of its predictions so far this season.

What it means for Oklahoma

Pretty much what it meant last week. OU just needs to keep winning, and they have a shot to make the 12-team field. Lose again, and they’re likely out.

Oklahoma needs to win out by defeating Missouri and LSU to have a shot at the College Football Playoff, with a 10-2 record that includes two road SEC wins against ranked Tennessee and Alabama being a strong vote in its favor for the committee.

The win is a solid argument that the CFP pickers should put the Sooners, which were No. 11 in their last rankings, ahead of current No. 4 Alabama, given they have identical records.

What it means for Alabama

A spot in the playoff field is still very much in play for the Crimson Tide, but with a second loss, there is far less room for any error over the next two weeks.

There’s no reason to suspect a 10-2 Alabama should be left out of the national title chase, but selectors may be faced with an ugly decision should that mark fall to 9-3 if the unthinkable happens at Auburn.

Alabama could get into the playoff with three losses, given it has other high-quality wins against four AP ranked opponents that the committee will take into consideration.

If they beat Auburn, would the Crimson Tide still make the SEC title game? It’s possible, but not a sure thing.

They could still lose in a three-way tie for second place in the SEC as Georgia and Ole Miss have better conference opponent winning percentages.

A win against Auburn without an appearance in the SEC Championship Game would have Alabama awaiting an at-large placement with a first-round playoff game either at home or on the road.

Making the SEC title bout would likely pit the Tide against either Texas A&M or Georgia, and a win in Atlanta would almost certainly give Bama a top-four seed and a first-round bye in the playoff.

Putting aside all the scenarios, the objective for Alabama and Oklahoma remains what it always has been: win.