Week 11 college football games most likely to shake up the CFP rankings

The College Football Playoff doesn't get underway for another six weeks, but these final weeks of the regular season are a playoff in their own right with more than two dozen viable contenders jockeying weekly for those 12 coveted spots.

Week 11 of the college football schedule features some high-stakes matchups that could make or break the hopes of several schools.

Here are the Week 11 college football games most likely to shake up the newly-released CFP rankings that debuted Tuesday.

(We're using the CFP rankings rather than AP rankings moving forward; all game times ET; all point spreads via ESPN Bet)

No. 7 BYU (8-0, 5-0 Big 12) at No. 8 Texas Tech (8-1, 5-1)

Texas Tech has been as dominant as any team in college football this season, with all eight of its wins coming by 23 or more points.

And yet, the cruel reality is that if the Red Raiders lose Saturday, there's no guarantee they find their way into the playoffs.

Texas Tech's only loss came last month by a narrow 26-22 margin on the road at Arizona State in a game that starting quarterback Behren Morton missed due to injury. That's the lone blemish on the Red Raiders' resume, and perhaps that will be taken into consideration by the selection committee (it certainly should).

Their dilemma, though, is that if they lose to BYU on Saturday, the Cougars and Cincinnati (7-2, 5-1, on bye this week) would control their paths to the Big 12 championship game. And even if Cincinnati loses again, the Red Raiders could still be among a group of two-loss Big 12 teams sorting through tiebreaker scenarios (Houston, Utah, Arizona State, and TCU enter this week with two Big 12 losses).

That's all very pertinent because ... given that the Big 12 only got one team into the CFP field last year, would a two-loss Texas Tech team that gets shut out of the conference championship game have a shot at an at-large berth?

Hard to say. The Red Raiders have only one win over a ranked opponent (Utah) and close out the schedule against UCF and West Virginia, which doesn't help. It would be interesting to see how far they'd drop with a loss to an undefeated top-10 team. It certainly depends on not just the outcome, but also how the game unfolds. However, already at No. 8, there isn't really anywhere for Texas Tech to slide and feel comfortable.

If the Red Raiders win, however, they'd remain in total control of their playoff path.

For BYU, meanwhile, it's unlikely that a win on Saturday would vault the Cougars ahead of the top six teams in the current CFP rankings, barring an upset loss; however, they could hold serve in a strong position. With a loss, BYU could conceivably tumble to around 12 and dent its chances for an at-large berth if it doesn't win the Big 12's automatic bid.

Texas Tech is a 10.5-point favorite.

No. 3 Texas A&M (8-0, 5-0 SEC) at No. 22 Missouri (6-2, 2-2)

The game of the week in the SEC sets up as an elimination game for Missouri and arguably the toughest test since September for unbeaten Texas A&M.

For the Tigers, it's plain and simple. No three-loss team earned an at-large berth into the playoffs last year, and none will this year either. Missouri has to win out against the Aggies, Mississippi State, at No. 12 Oklahoma and at Arkansas.

And it must face Texas A&M (dislocated ankle), while starting true freshman Matt Zollers, but that's not necessarily a dagger for Mizzou. The Tigers are built on the strength of their run game led by Ahmad Hardy, who is third nationally at 117.13 rushing yards per game, and their top-5 defense (245.8 yards per game allowed).

Texas A&M, meanwhile, sure looked like the real deal two weeks ago in its 49-25 win at then-No. 20 LSU that ended the Brian Kelly Era in Baton Rouge. But the only other ranked team the Aggies played this season was in Week 3 when they won 41-40 in a wild game at Notre Dame.

Missouri hasn't gotten a lot of national buzz, but its only losses were to ranked Alabama and Vanderbilt (on the road), and both were competitive one-score games. A win here would warrant vaulting the Tigers, maybe to the fringe of the top 12 -- depending on how the committee felt about it, leapfrogging a Vanderbilt it lost to head-to-head. Even if it didn't rise that high in the rankings, Missouri would still be in a good spot, with the opportunity at No. 12 Oklahoma still ahead.

If Texas A&M gets past this hurdle, it still has a road game at No. 11 Texas to close out the schedule and then potentially the SEC championship game. Everything is in the Aggies' control right now.

Even with a loss, it would be hard to see Texas A&M dropping any lower than No. 8.

Texas A&M is a 6.5-point favorite.

No. 9 Oregon (7-1, 4-1 Big Ten) at No. 20 Iowa (6-2, 4-1)

Iowa was perhaps the biggest beneficiary of the CFP selection committee, which ranked the Hawkeyes No. 20 despite the AP voters leaving them out of the top 25 all season.

Iowa has received almost no national playoff buzz so far, but that could change in a hurry. The Hawkeyes are especially tough to play in Iowa City, losing just one game at home each of the last three years (including 20-15 to No. 2 Indiana this season in the only close game the Hoosiers have played).

If Iowa gets past a very good but beatable Oregon team at home, it would get a major surge up the CFP rankings and then close out with a road game at always vulnerable No. 19 USC, a home game against reeling Michigan State and a road finale against Nebraska (without its starting quarterback).

The Hawkeyes don't have a path to the Big Ten championship game barring total chaos, but add wins over ranked Oregon and USC teams to a resume that has just two respectable losses (16-13 on the road at then-ranked Iowa State in a rivalry game and by 5 points to No. 2 Indiana) and they could be positioned as the third Big Ten team into the playoff field.

But this is also an elimination game for Iowa, obviously -- there is no other playoff path but winning out.

As for Oregon ...

The Ducks are No. 6 in the AP top 25 but got slotted No. 9 in the initial CFP rankings, meaning the committee is already a little more critical of their resume.

Oregon's only win over a then-ranked opponent has been undermined by Penn State's precipitous slide since that late September showdown in Happy Valley. Oregon then lost its biggest game, 30-20 at home to Indiana.

The Ducks absolutely need to win this one, but may also need to win out (with remaining games against Minnesota, No. 19 USC, and at No. 23 Washington). If unbeaten Ohio State and Indiana remain on their collision course for the Big Ten championship game, that means the likes of Oregon, Iowa, USC, Michigan, and Washington are competing for at-large invites. Four Big Ten teams made it onto the bracket last year, but that's no guarantee if the Big 12 grabs an extra spot this year or the SEC adds yet another.

As for Saturday, with the committee already taking a more scrutinous look at Oregon, a loss here would send it way down the rankings.

Oregon is a 6.5-point favorite.

LSU (5-3, 2-3 SEC) at No. 4 Alabama (7-1, 5-0)

Any college football fan knows that a team that just fired its coach leading into a bye week is a total wild card in the next game.

Sometimes that reset provides a real spark for a talented but underachieving team. That's why LSU, in its first game under interim head coach Frank Wilson, can't be counted out here, especially after Wilson invited former Tigers back to watch practices and talk with/inspire the team.

More to the point, LSU has absolutely nothing to lose at this point and still has a talented roster -- the reason it was viewed as a top 10 team earlier in the season.

A loss wouldn't necessarily be damning for Alabama, which has won seven straight games (four over ranked opponents) since the season-opening loss to Florida State. However, it would knock the Crimson Tide down a few pegs in the rankings and certainly heighten the pressure on the remaining games, including next week's matchup against No. 12 Oklahoma and the Iron Bowl against Auburn.

Alabama is a 9.5-point favorite.

Wake Forest (5-3, 2-3 ACC) at No. 14 Virginia (8-1, 5-0)

Virginia looks like the most vulnerable team in the top 15 of the CFP rankings.

The Cavaliers' record is shiny, but their resume is really built on two coin-flip overtime wins over Florida State (a top 10 team at the time but now nowhere close to the rankings) and at Louisville (now No. 15) in back-to-back weeks.

Since then, Virginia has been walking a tight rope to maintain its ranking. It barely got past a bad Washington State team at home, 22-20, then needed overtime to escape lowly North Carolina, 17-16, and was in a three-point game on the road at Cal before tacking on a pick-6 in the final minute for a 31-21 win. None of those teams is particularly strong, and being pushed to the wire by all three isn't particularly inspiring for the Cavaliers.

It's also hard to play with fire that consistently and not eventually get burned.

Wake Forest is a middling team that just lost 42-7 at Florida State, but before that it upset SMU a couple weeks ago, 13-12, and could certainly play spoiler here.

Any loss should knock Virginia out of the CFP rankings, given its thin resume, so the Cavaliers need to at least play their way into the ACC championship game to feel good about their playoff chances.

Virginia is a 6.5-point favorite.