My Two Cents: Can Anyone in AL West Take Advantage of Astros' Injury Woes?
The Houston Astros won the World Series last year with a very good lineup and world-class pitching. It was a magic formula, and a tried-and-true combination that usually works well in October.
Fast forward eight months, though, and these defending champion Astros are barely recognizable. Injuries have decimated this team, especially the starting rotation, and a lack of free-agent activity during the offseason suddenly has the Astros in a position where they have to lean on a bunch of unproven rookies.
It's not a good situation.
There have been issues offensively, too, of course. All-Star second baseman Jose Altuve hasn't played yet after breaking his thumb during the World Baseball Classic in March. Alex Bregman is only hitting .202 and first baseman Jose Abreu — their big offseason addition — still hasn't hit a home run in 130 at bats. The Astros are eighth in the American League in runs scored; they were third a year ago.
The pitching situation, though, is even worse. They lost future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander to free agency in the offseason, and didn't replace him, figuring they had plenty of depth to cover their innings. We watched them trot out one great arm after another in the postseason last year, so staying out of free agency didn't seem like a reach.
But the Astros still haven't had Lance McCullers healthy as he's dealt with a forearm injury since February. He's throwing again, but is probably at least a month or more away from returning. Jose Urquidy just went on the injured list with a shoulder inflammation, with no timetable for his return.
Houston pitcher Luis Garcia (77) walks off the mound after an apparent injury during the first inning against the San Francisco Giants. (Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports)
The worst news, of course, was losing Luis Garcia for the season — and much of 2024 — after it was determined that he'll need Tommy John surgery. That's a huge loss, because he's been practically unhittable lately, pitching a combined 13 scoreless innings in his last two starts against Toronto and Tampa Bay, the two most lethal lineups in baseball right now.
“That’s a tremendous blow,” Houston manager Dusty Baker said Friday. “I was praying that it was something different, something minor. You’re always afraid of that when it’s in the elbow … That was a tough one. He’s a strong kid. He’s in good spirits. But that’s a tremendous blow.”
The Astros are just 17-16 right now after losing 7-5 in Seattle on Saturday. They have had slow starts before during this multi-year playoff run — they won 106 games last year after starting out 11-11 — but this is dramatically different. Can you imagine them getting hot with a bunch of rookies covering the majority of their starts now?
Next up is a series starting tonight with the Angels in Anaheim. The Astros are favored at minus-130 according to the Fanduel gambling website. The over/under is 9.
Framber Valdez and Christian Javier are a solid-enough 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation. Valdez has been steady in every start, Javier not as much. Now it's up to the rest of the guys — the young guys — to keep them in this race.
Hunter Brown, who's only 24 years old, has been good. He's 3-1 with a 2.60 ERA and looked great against Tampa Bay, throwing seven scoreless innings of two-hit ball on April 26. He lost his last start, 2-0 to the San Francisco Giants, but still pitched well. He looks like the real deal, but when does he hit that rookie wall?
J.P. France made his first major-league start on Saturday night, and pitched five scoreless innings before the Houston bullpen blew a three-run lead by allowing seven runs to the Mariners in the eighth inning. It was a nice debut but, much like Brown, we really have no idea how consistent he will be going forward.
The Astros are turning to Brandon Bielak to fill out the rotation on Sunday. It's his first start of the year, and we won't know what to expect there, either. He made six starts in. 2020 and two more in 2021, and got rocked often. He's got a lot to prove.
Two concerning things come into play now. The Astros have to be careful with not overtaxing all these rookie arms, because they aren't used to a lot of long, high-leverage outings. And what about the bullpen? You start taxing those arms, too, and you're going to have to deal with fatigue issues there as well. It was very concerning Saturday night that Rafael Montero and Ryan Stanek combined to give up seven runs, seven hits and two walks in the eighth inning alone.
“It started with the walk. Two-out walk, couple of infield hits and it started just like a feeding frenzy,” Baker said. “That was tough to take.”
It's going to be interesting to see if anyone in the American League West can take advantage of Houston's injury issues. The Astros have won five straight full-season AL West titles in a row.
The Texas Rangers, Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners have all made improvements this year to better contend with the Astros. The Rangers and Angels have been playing better — the Rangers (19-13) lead the division, a game ahead of the Angels (19-15) with the Astros 2.5 games back and Seattle 3.5 behind —and this looks like it could turn into a heck of a four-team race.
The rest of them have issues of their own, and it's going to be interesting to see who can get hot. I liked the Mariners the best out of all of them in the preseason, but they haven't shown a lot so far. I still think they will.
The Astros will need to win most every start by Valdez and Javier going forward, and then hope and pray with the kids. They also have injury issues with a few starters at the Triple-A level, so there is very little in reserve, too.
Somebody is going to get hot and take control of this division. But I have no idea who that will be. That, I suppose, is what's going to make this race so much fun.
