Big Drop in NBA Draft Early Entrants Caused by NIL
With only 174 U.S. college basketball players entering the 2024 NBA Draft as early entrants, the upcoming draft marks a record-low total of early entrants since the pandemic. An early entrant is a collegiate player who has decided to enter the NBA draft process and will forgo at least one season of collegiate eligibility to turn professional early. This was a binding decision before an NCAA rule change in 2016; however, collegiate players with remaining eligibility can now enter the NBA Draft process and “test the waters” before deciding to opt-out by the end of May to retain NCAA eligibility.
The 174 early entrants is a sharp decrease from the 198 early entrants who entered the 2023 NBA Draft, the 247 early entrants in the 2022 NBA Draft, and the 306 early entrants who entered the 2021 NBA Draft. Data before 2021 is not a great comparison to the raw early entrant data from the four most recent drafts. Starting in 2021, a massive spike in early entrants occurred, as the NCAA, in response to the COVID-19 Pandemic, gave all athletes an extra year of eligibility following the 2020-2021 season. This led to four-year players, who would have previously not been considered early entrants, being labeled as such because they retained an option to go back to school and compete for a fifth year –– better known as a “COVID year.”
Since the COVID pandemic and subsequent extra eligibility for players, the NCAA has experienced seismic shifts in policy and competitive landscape, which are likely to have ripple effects on the number of players entering the NBA Draft. The introduction of NIL and the removal of penalties for one-time transfer athletes in 2021 created a proxy-free agency system where athletes can be compensated for athletic participation via NIL Collectives. These collectives use NIL payment as recruiting inducements to keep current players and recruit transfer players from other universities through the now ubiquitous transfer portal.
Due to preliminary injunctions in two separate antitrust lawsuits against the NCAA during the 2023-2024 season, the NCAA has been stripped of any regulatory power over NIL, and now athletes are able to transfer penalty-free as much as they would like. This has further catalyzed the free-agency nature of the collegiate basketball offseason. Now, at the conclusion of every season, a player is able to test the market and see how much NIL Collectives are willing to compensate them for their athletic talents. To find any helpful conclusions about NIL and transfer restrictions’ impact on NBA draft entry, it is necessary to isolate the influence on the data by “COVID-19 year” players. A helpful chart, created by yours truly is presented below:
2016: NCAA changed rules allowing players to enter the NBA draft without forfeiting collegiate eligibility
— Noah Henderson (@NoahImgLikeness) May 7, 2024
2020: Global pandemic gave every athlete an extra year of eligibility
2021: NIL & Transfer Portal introduced: created a proxy-free agency and salaries for college players pic.twitter.com/eshIgyDIFH
Traditional early entrants, those entering before utilizing four-years of collegiate eligibility, have seen a decrease in declaring for the NBA Draft. Before NIL (2016-2021 NBA Draft Classes), each draft had an average of 154 traditional early entrants. In the NIL era (2022-2024 NBA Draft Classes) the average was 117 early entrants –– a roughly 24% decrease. This indicates that players on the fence about opting into the draft will likely not make the leap in the NIL era and rather conserve their efforts towards transfer portal recruiting, as there is an overlap between the two processes. Before NIL and open transfers, a player could enter the draft process without sacrificing time dedicated to transfer portal recruitment. In essence, NIL and the transfer portal have narrowed the field of early entrants to those who are truly serious about their draft potential.
The most interesting phenomenon is a significant decline in players with only “COVID year” eligibility opting to enter the NBA Draft process. In 2022, the first year of NIL Collective recruitment, 124 seniors with remaining COVID eligibility decided to test the NBA Draft waters as early entrants. In 2023, coinciding with a more normalized and efficient NIL Collective market, only 89 seniors decided to enter the NBA Draft as early entrants. In 2024, only 55 seniors with COVID eligibility declared as early entrants –– a staggering 55.6% decrease.
For most four-year players, finding a home for their final season of eligibility (with good NIL payment) appears more appealing than attempting to go through the draft process. Likely, the normalization of playing a fifth year, the desirability of experienced players to coaches, and the further development of the NIL transfer economy all play a part in this significant trend.
This year will mark the end of the COVID bonus eligibility for the majority of players; those who redshirted or gained bonus eligibility through other means may linger for another year. It will be interesting to see the early entrant data moving forward. If the early indications are right, there will continue to be a reduction of early entrant players “testing the waters” in the NBA Draft, as only those with true professional intentions will make the jump.
NOAH HENDERSON
Professor Noah Henderson teaches in the sport management department at Loyola University Chicago. Outside the classroom, he advises companies, schools, and collectives on Name, Image, and Likeness best practices. His academic research focuses on the intersection of law, economics, and social consequences regarding college athletics, NIL, and sports gambling. Before teaching, Prof. Henderson was part of a team that amended Illinois NIL legislation and managed NIL collectives at the nation’s most prominent athletic institutions while working for industry leader Student Athlete NIL. He holds a Juris Doctor from the University of Illinois College of Law in Urbana-Champaign and a Bachelor of Economics from Saint Joseph’s University, where he was a four-year letter winner on the golf team. Prof. Henderson is a native of San Diego, California, and a former golf CIF state champion with Torrey Pines High School. Outside of athletics, he enjoys playing guitar, hanging out with dogs, and eating California burritos. You can follow him on Twitter: @NoahImgLikeness.