Predictions for the Kentucky Sweet 16 Bracket; Assumption Rises, GRC Peaks at the Perfect Time

With district tournaments tipping off, surging contenders, falling powers and a projected bracket set the stage for a postseason where the crown may run through George Rogers Clark.

Assumption senior Ashlinn James sets up for a 3-point shot in a game against Danville Christian on January 13, 2026. The Indiana signee will lead the Rockets in their quest for a state title. / Chris Adams

With district tournaments commencing this week for Kentucky girls high school basketball, a few notable top 10 teams have slipped a bit, while others are ascending at the right moment.

At various times during the regular season, Sacred Heart, Cooper and Calloway County seemed to have a lock on the No. 1 spot; no squad capable of wrestling it away from them. But the top spot is only a rented space, and most teams usually vacate it before the regular-season lease ends.

Assumption and George Rogers Clark Push Towards the Top

However, Assumption and George Rogers Clark haven’t rented the place at the top of the hill this year—Simon Kenton currently resides there. These three programs, and perhaps North Laurel, have attained an apotheosis at a critical time: the end of the regular season. Now we’ll see if it sticks as they navigate districts, regionals and the Sweet 16.

The Kentucky High School State Sweet 16 Basketball Tournament is fast approaching...Sacred Heart Academy's Emma Zutterman posts up and pivots for a bucket in a recent game against George Rogers Clark. pic.twitter.com/DfK6F4p70f

— Christopher Adams (@CJASportswriter) February 21, 2026

Predicting the Sweet 16 Bracket

If I had to predict a Sweet 16 bracket today, the outcome or result would be as follows:

Seventh Region vs. First Region

Assumption vs. Calloway County

Assumption record: 19-5
Assumption standout: Indiana signee and Co-Seventh Region Player of the Year Ashlinn James is averaging 14.2 points per game.
Calloway County record: 28-2
Calloway County standout: University of North Alabama signee Sayler Lowe averages 21.7 points and 9.1 rebounds per game.

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10th Region vs. 13th Region

George Rogers Clark vs. South Laurel

GRC record: 23-2
GRC standout: Robert Morris commit Teigh Yeast averages 11.8 points per game.
South Laurel record: 21-6
South Laurel standout: Maci Messer averages 13.1 points and five rebounds per game.

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16th Region vs. Eighth Region

Ashland Blazer vs. Simon Kenton

Ashland Blazer record: 21-5
Ashland Blazer standout: Malone University commit Gabby Karle averages 14.8 points per game.
Simon Kenton record: 26-2
Simon Kenton standout: Brynli Pernell, who has logged more than 2,000 points in her high school career, averages 18.4 points per game.

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Ninth Region vs. 15th Region

Cooper vs. Johnson Central

Cooper record: 19-7
Cooper standout: Haylee Noel averages 20.7 and 8.1 rebounds per contest.
Johnson Central record: 16-5
Johnson Central standout: Sophomore Karlea Stanley averages 17.7 points per game.

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11th Region vs. Second Region

Frederick Douglass vs. Henderson County

Frederick Douglass record: 19-6
Frederick Douglass standout: Jaelee Knowles is averaging 13.9 points and 7.6 rebounds per game.
Henderson County record: 20-9
Henderson County standout: Kentucky State commit ATylia Green averages 16.8 points per contest.

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Fifth Region vs. 12th Region

Taylor County vs. Boyle County

Taylor County record: 22-6
Taylor County standout: Freshman Kennedy Deemer is averaging 23.8 points per game.
Boyle County record: 23-3
Boyle County standouts: Sophomore Addison Yates leads her team with 18.9 points per game. Freshman Kynslee Leffew is averaging 10 rebounds per contest.

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Third Region vs. 14th Region

Owensboro Catholic vs. Hazard

Owensboro Catholic record: 22-7
Owensboro Catholic standout: Katie Hagan is averaging 12.5 points and 6.6 rebounds per game.
Hazard record: 16-11
Hazard standout: Sophomore Maddi Frohnapfel averages 16.2 points and 6.8 rebounds per game.

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Sixth Region vs. Fourth Region

Butler vs. Barren County

Butler record: 15-7
Butler standout: Keziah Renee' is the Sixth Region Player of the Year, averaging 15.4 points and 5.4 rebounds per game.
Barren County record: 27-2
Barren County standout: Shelby Byrd is averaging 18.8 points per game.

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I’ll revisit this after the regionals and retell the story with what I’m sure will be a few variations. But it could be argued that it’s GSRs to lose, Assumption being their only potential roadblock.