Jackson Cantwell commitment preview: What are the chances for each finalist?

Andrew Nemec | May 13, 2025

Five-star offensive tackle Jackson Cantwell on a visit to Miami with Mario Cristobal and others / Courtesy of Jackson Cantwell

Nixa (Missouri) five-star offensive tackle Jackson Cantwell is set to announce his college commitment Tuesday at 12:45 p.m. PT/3:45 p.m. ET on YouTube.

WATCH IT LIVE

The nation's No. 1 overall prospect is down to a final four of Georgia, Miami, Ohio State and Oregon.

But who is the favorite?

Let's break down the chances each finalist has of landing Cantwell.

Miami Hurricanes: 60 percent

There's been a few twists and turns since, but fans should remember Cantwell seemed to first imply his decision was near after a visit to Miami.

Mario Cristobal is a relentless recruiter and the Hurricanes have made a sizable NIL offer to the 6-foot-8, 300-pound offensive tackle and elite track and field thrower.

While Georgia seemed to be the team-to-beat entering decision day, a flurry of late predictions in Miami's favor seems to indicate the 'Canes have all the momentum on decision day.

Cristobal loves his offensive linemen, and he may get the country's biggest prize Tuesday afternoon.

Georgia Bulldogs: 32 percent

Georgia surged in recent weeks and hosted the last visit - a trip that was scheduled and immediately led to Cantwell pushing back his commitment date to accommodate the trip,

But they may find themselves beaten at the finish line.

Despite a late visit - and a peer recruiting push from Nashville Christian School (Tennessee) five-star quarterback Jared Curtis - Georgia's preceived lead has given way to a flurry of Miami predictions in the final hours.

The Bulldogs still have a shot, of course, but the "he's all-Georgia" chatter from this weekend has clearly given way to a belief that Miami will close it out on top.

Oregon Ducks: 7 percent

Prior to the scheduling of his Georgia visit - and a pushback of his commitment date - it looked like maybe there should be a "0" after the "7."

The five-star recruit said Missouri-native Dan Lanning was his favorite coach on the recruiting trail and Cantwell was scheduled to commit to his school of choice just days after visiting Oregon for its spring game.

He also sent out a tweet to fellow five-star recruits about linking up in Eugene in the future.

It looked as though Oregon fans were prepared to post the Dan Lanning celebratory cigar GIF all over again.

But the delay, and subsequent visit to Georgia, dramatically shifted the odds.

It became a Georgia-Miami battle - with Oregon possibly fading late.

Oregon made a last-ditch effort to sway Cantwell this week - and Lanning shouldn't be counted out when he gets the last word.

But given the way things seem to have changed in recent weeks, an Oregon pick would be a surprise.

Ohio State: 1 percent

Ohio State is a finalist and a stellar college football program, so it's impossible to give them no chance.

But Cantwell's recruitment has primarily been a three-team battle for some time.

The Buckeyes, at least in this recruitment, have been relegated to "after thought" by most analysts predicting Cantwell's future.

Final analysis: In tight battles in the NIL era, a recruit picking any of his finalists shouldn't be viewed as a complete shocker.

The recruiting world won't be stunned if Cantwell chooses any of his four finalists, but it sure seems heading into the final hours that Miami has made the necessary late push to pass Georgia and others.

What will be the "winning" school be getting?

247Sports projects Cantwell as a future NFL'er:

"Tall, big-framed offensive tackle prospect with a stellar athletic profile and pedigree who's an advanced mover at this stage of development. Quick off the ball and flashes hand violence and POA power. Bounce in his step and plays with active feet. Capable bender who gets hips involved. Further ahead as a run blocker than in pass protection, but displays encouraging footwork in the latter with immense potential in that category. More catcher than puncher in pass pro, but strength is there and power capacity is possibly limitless. Missouri state champion in shot put and discus, Nike Outdoor Nationals competitor. Rare multi-sport profile and genetic background (son of two former Olympics throws athletes). Can get more consistent use of length/extension. May ultimately possess a higher ceiling on the right side. Projects as a high-major multi-year starter with outstanding physical tools and athletic/genetic profile that suggests long-term early-round NFL Draft potential."

feed