SF Giants free-agent breakdown: Chicago Cubs C Willson Contreras
Former Chicago Cubs catcher Willson Contreras headlines an otherwise thin free-agent catcher group this offseason. He is the 10th-best free agent on the market, per Giants Baseball Insider's rankings. The reason starts and ends with his offense, which is arguably the best in the league at his position. Last year, he slashed .243/.349/.466 with 22 home runs, which in last year's offensively-depressed league, was good for an OPS+ of 128. A catcher who is 28% more productive than the average hitter in the league is an extremely valuable commodity, and Contreras would immediately make the SF Giants better.
Would it make sense for the SF Giants to add Willson Contreras?
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Contreras would also immediately conflict with Joey Bart for starting time. Bart, the second overall pick in the 2018 draft, has battled through tough offensive stretches early in his nascent career. He's also only 25. The hope for Bart remains that he can continue to grow into the game over the next couple of years, becoming an above-average backstop stalwart. Is it really worth trying to jam a square-ish shaped peg into a round-ish shaped hole to bring Contreras to San Francisco?
There are three ways that I could see this happening, each a little more unlikely than the last.
First, Contreras' market doesn't materialize in the way most industry experts expect, and he's willing to go a little short on the years or the dollars. Considering he's the clear-cut #1 option on the free agent market for catchers, the chances of that seem slim. But compare these three projections. You end up at 4 years and just about $80 million dollars. Seems pretty consistent. But compare that with Spotrac's evaluation of Contreras, and you'll see that comparisons at the catching position forecast a tick over $60 million, and Contreras' market value only gets a slight bump at $65 million. If front office models view Contreras' similarly, they could get cold feet and seek alternatives elsewhere. At that point, if the Giants have missed out on top offensive targets, Contreras could become a realistic option.
The second option is that, with a quick and successful strike at the early-going free agents, the Giants' ownership encourages Farhan Zaidi to spend above the $200 million mark, and maybe even past the $233 million luxury tax threshold. Perhaps, after signing a star infielder, outfielder, starting pitcher, and value reliever, the Giants start considering ways to really get closer to the Dodgers. Catcher might not have been a massive hindrance last year, but there'd be value in upgrading it. And Contreras, who didn't show massive platoon splits last year (.801 OPS vs. RHP, .859 OPS vs. LHP) would add a lot of security and steadiness to a team whose lineups last year fluctuated more than Mercury in retrograde. Having Contreras and Bart split time at catcher could give Bart the breathing room he needs to build consistency into his game while keeping Contreras from enduring too much wear-and-tear into his thirties. It'd be costly, but it would also give the Giants one of the most dangerous and promising catching corps in the game.
The last option, though. It's the nuclear one. We've all been tired of the Belt Wars after a decade of ruinous infighting. Having a sometimes-promising sometimes-infuriating catcher behind the plate for another decade could be just too much to bear. Other teams know about him, and other teams were ready to pounce on him even when he was struggling, so now's the time - trade Joey Bart.
Personally? It's not the approach I'd go with. But it has to be a consideration for the front office. They're pretty reliable in their advocacy for players who possess elite bat-to-ball skills, and Bart doesn't fit that profile, not with all those strikeouts. If they flip Bart now, they can get a nice prospect haul, or maybe he headlines a package that nets them an immediate impact player. And with Contreras available, perhaps it makes more sense to go with him and a promising first or second baseman rather than stick it out with Bart and internal options for another year. It could certainly work out better than going after Xander Bogaerts to try to make him the Giants' second baseman of the future.
That, of course, leaves the question of what to do after Contreras' contract ends a few years from now. But the Giants have stocked up on catching prospects in the past couple years. Catching prospects Patrick Bailey, Adrian Sugastey, and Onil Perez are all developing. Could the Giants be confident enough in their catching depth that moving Bart could be the move?
It's unlikely, but Contreras' acumen has to give them pause. He helped Chicago break their championship curse as a rookie in 2016, just like Posey did in 2010. He's consistently been one of the better hitters in the league, and he's really locked into his power stroke in the past four years. Another couple All-Star years in the next four isn't out of the question. And while he's been dinged hard by the advanced metrics for his framing early in his career, his arm is as solid as ever - He's led the National League in Caught Stealing twice in the past 5 years. The implementation of a pitch clock could make him even more attractive; controlling the running game while pitchers make their adjustments, especially late-game relievers like Camilo Doval, could be huge. And if the automatic balls-strikes system gets put in the year after, all those issues with framing go right away.
As with any other free agent, the Giants should have concerns with a player entering their 30s, and Contreras will play his age 31-34 seasons over the likely length of his next contract. But compared to other #1 free agents at their positions, that contract will be a pittance. If the Giants didn't have so many needs elsewhere, I might be pounding the table for them to make this move work. After all, the last time they got elite-level production out of the catcher position, they won 107 games.
Ultimately, Willson Contreras should be viewed as a marker of how deeply the SF Giants are committed to a win-at-all-costs philosophy in 2023. It's probably not going to happen because the Giants probably won't spend $100 million in average annual value this year on free agents. But if they're willing to be as ruthless, opportunistic, and results-driven as they can be, we might be in for a surprise. Contreras is going to look good somewhere. It'd be nice if it were here.
