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How the Philadelphia Phillies are Playing Moneyball in 2022

The Philadelphia Phillies aren't playing moneyball with their payroll, but they are finding value on the margins of the MLB Draft.

Author:
Ben Silver
Aug 10, 2022 6:00 PM EDT

In this story:

Philadelphia Phillies

When Griff McGarry was drafted out of the University of Virginia in 2021, talent evaluators around the league acknowledged he was a risky selection.

Sporting a BB/9 rate of 8.8 during his senior year of college isn't really a sign that a player is ready for professional baseball. But the Philadelphia Phillies saw more in McGarry than just his command issues.

They saw his blazing fastball which led to 14.4 K/9 in 2021 at UVA, a plus-plus slider that baffled hitters throughout the ACC, and most importantly, they saw his dominant starts in the College World Series.

A year later, McGarry has turned out to be the steal of the draft. Ranked number 99 on Baseball America's midseason Top 100 prospects, he's proven that the Phillies can develop pitching talent.

McGarry pitches against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at TD Ameritrade Park.
© Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports

As of August 2022, McGarry is sporting a 3.57 ERA in 63 minor league innings through 2022, posting 14.6 K/9 and 4.9 BB/9. His command still has a ways to go, but his ceiling is among the stars.

Andrew Painter and Mick Abel are the other shining examples of the Phillies' new development system headed by Preston Mattingly.

Captained by former-New York Yankees scouting director Brian Barber, the Phillies new amateur scouting director has flipped the book with the way the organization handles pitching.

Long gone are the days of Jake Thompson, Nick Pivetta, Spencer Howard, and Adonis Medina. A system wide implementation of streamlined coaching has propelled the Phillies to greater heights.

Phillies prospect bust Jake Thompson pitches at Citizens Bank Park in 2018.
© Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

With coaches and scouts all pulling in the same direction, the time was ripe to take some risks, and that's exactly what the Phillies did in the 2022 MLB Amateur Draft.

With 19 picks in the Draft, Philadelphia selected seven right-handed college relievers. Between Alex McFarlane, Orion Kerkering, Alex Rao, Josh Bortka, Daniel Harper, Drew Garrett and Nate Karaffa are just 15 starts in the 2022 college season.

Rao, Bortka, Harper, and Karaffa never made a single start. Karaffa had never even pitched at all in college before 2022.

But those players all have one thing in common: they throw hard and they strike batters out. All of those pitchers finished 2022 with their K/9 10.9 or higher except for Daniel Harper.

Harper nearly broke stadium radar guns during the MLB Draft League in 2022 when he clocked 95.5 mph, the 10th highest velocity tracked league wide.

Harper wasn't expecting the call to the Phillies' system. He didn't even know the Phillies had scouted him until the day of the Draft.

"The first contact I ever had with [the Phillies] was in the 15th round of the Draft when they called me and said, 'Hey, do you wanna get your name taken?'" said Harper.

Once selected, the Phillies trusted a player like Harper to treat himself with care. Perhaps team officials still hadn't been worn out of the honeymoon phase with their other Harper.

The treatment Daniel received is standard for Philadelphia's draftees, they want their new additions to their organization to feel comfortable.

"They're like, 'Hey you did whatever got you here, so just keep on doing that,'" Harper said. "From what I've heard some other organizations try to put everything on you that they want you to do, but down here we've got so much freedom. It's just like, 'Be at this field at this time ready to go.'"

Phillies arriving for practice at the Clearwater complex.
© Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

From a development perspective, Harper is probably going to stay in the bullpen.

"I really don't think starting would be in my future," Harper said. "I think one, with the two injuries that I have, the endurance factor isn't really there right now, and two, I just feel like my stuff plays way better when I'm out of the bullpen."

Like a handful of his fellow college draftees, he'll remain a reliever. The jury is out on Karaffa and Garrett though, who both have injuries that will keep them out through the end of the season.

Rao saw limited time as a starter in 2020 and 2021, but he'll remain a bullpen piece according to sources, the same is probably true for Bortka.

That leaves front-round picks McFarlane and Kerkering. According to those same sources, McFarlane is being stretched out as a starter. The Phillies, like every other organization in professional baseball, understand that starters have more value than relievers, and they believe McFarlane could follow the same path as McGarry.

They've developed a low-command, high-stuff guy before in McGarry. They understand the profile now better than ever. Despite McFarlane's 4.0 BB/9, his 13.6 K/9 stands out so far from amongst the rest of the pack.

He's someone they can mold into an effective three-pitch starter. His gyro slider is an elite 60-grade pitch. Scouts believe his changeup, ripe for development, could one day be a 70-grade pitch given the 10 mph decrease in velocity from his fastball.

That fastball has touched 99 mph in 2022, but normally, it sits closer to 95 mph. Its shape isn't as advanced as someone like McGarry's, but McFarlane throws it hard enough with a low enough release point to get whiffs.

He's the Phillies' forbidden fruit of the 2022 Draft class. Again, like McGarry, he has a low floor, but high ceiling. The Phillies have cornered a slice of the market that they believe they can exploit better than anyone else.

Moneyball progenitor Billy Beane in 2008.
© Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Moneyball isn't just about spending less money and winning more games. It's about finding value in places where other organizations don't look.

That's what Philadelphia has done with this crop of draftees. They've drafted seven hard-throwing righties that they know they will be able to develop better than anyone else. If it works in 2022, it's something they'll do again in 2023 until the rest of Major League Baseball catches on.