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Have the Philadelphia Phillies Found Their Centerfielder of the Future?

Is Matt Vierling the center fielder the Philadelphia Phillies have been looking for all along?

Author:
Ben Silver
Jul 7, 2022 3:00 PM EDT

In this story:

Philadelphia Phillies

Mickey Moniak, Scott Kingery, Odúbel Herrera and Adam Haseley: between them are two first round draft selections, an All-Star appearance, and the largest contract for a player without a single day of Major League service time. Besides the high expectations placed upon them by the Philadelphia Phillies' former front office, they all have something in common:

They were all leapfrogged on the center field depth chart by a man who had played just 24 games above the lower minor leagues before his big league debut: Matt Vierling.

Vierling has been one of the Phillies' few developmental successes of the late-rebuild era, besides Ranger Suárez. Selected in the fifth round of the 2018 MLB Amateur Draft, the outlook wasn't bright for Vierling to make the majors, let alone be a productive player.

Only about a third of all athletes selected in the fifth round of the MLB Draft ever make their MLB debut, less than 20% stick around for three or more years. Vierling has conquered the odds in making the Phillies, and is well on his way to crossing the next hurdle.

With a .279/.347/.419 slashline for an OPS+ of 113 since his first plate appearance on June 19, 2021, only two Phillies who played both 2021 and 2022 in red pinstripes have had a higher OPS since that date: Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins.

Alongside his impressive OPS, Vierling should be improving even further according to his analytics. Had he enough plate appearances to qualify, Vierling would place ninth among all National League hitters in exit velocity, his average is 91.6 mph.

As hard as he hits the ball, luck hasn't gone his way. All things being equal, Vierling should be slashing .287/.375/.482 in 2022. His OPS would be the highest on the Phillies for any player with over 100 plate appearances not named Kyle Schwarber or Bryce Harper.

While Vierling established himself as a remarkable hitter in September of 2021, he still lacked the tools to make himself a more formidable opponent. He was striking out far too often and not walking enough to maintain his unbelievable start.

But in 2022, Vierling answered doubters confidently. His strikeout-rate dropped 6.7% and his walk-rate has responded inversely, rising from 5.2% to a near elite 11.8%. Those figures would have seemed possible just one year ago.

When Vierling was demoted from the Phillies 26-man roster on June 25, 2021, he struggled at the Triple-A level, getting consistent at-bats at that level for the first time. It would have been fair to write him off as a bust then, though few would have qualified him for the title given his already limited hype.

Nevertheless, Vierling worked his way back to the Phillies roster for a September playoff push and led the team in batting average in a very limited sample size.

But why were the Phillies suddenly giving Vierling, who had never played above A-ball before 2021, so many chances? Just before the COVID-19 pandemic, Vierling began working with private hitting coach Kevin Graham, as reported by Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer.

Graham studies the biomechanics of a hitter's approach and instructed Vierling to stand taller at the plate. Vierling saw bright results instantly after a bleak 2019 in which Phillies minor league coaches had instructed him to unnaturally chase home runs and power.

Matt Vierling stands tall at the plate as he rips a triple at loanDepot Park in Miami.
© Rhona Wise-USA TODAY Sports

Vierling knew he was a Major League threat and almost immediately, so to did the Phillies. Seeing his new potential, the Phillies played him in 19 of the Phillies 27 Grapefruit League games that spring.

Since then, Vierling's production has been nothing short of a dream. Not even in consideration for a center field role in 2021, Vierling has suddenly become the Phillies' most promising future center field candidate within the organization.

Johan Rojas, a promising young prospect in his own right, could aim to swipe that crown from Vierling eventually. But, given the 25 year-old's success, the club may now be open to ship Rojas out in a trade deadline package for more starting pitching, or perhaps bullpen help.

The Phillies' can't be ruled out of a blockbuster to acquire superstar centerfielders Cedric Mullins or Bryan Reynolds either, but with five and a half more years of team control on their latest surprise, maybe the Phillies are now less willing to deal such a heavy haul for the two former All-Stars.