© Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler are Postseason Difference Makers
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If the season ended today, the Philadelphia Phillies would earn a postseason berth as a Wild Card team. They would play a best-of-three series against the Milwaukee Brewers in the first round of the playoffs.
Three-game postseason matchups are new this year, part of the expanded playoff format decided upon in the latest collective bargaining agreement.
Under this format, the top two starting pitchers in a team's rotation are more important than ever. In such a short series, they might be the only two starters who take the mound.
Each team competing for the NL Wild Card has a powerful one-two punch atop their rotation. The Braves have Max Fried and Kyle Wright. The Giants have Carlos Rodon and Logan Webb. The Padres have Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish. The Cardinals have Miles Mikolas and Adam Wainwright.
The Phillies, however, might have the most fearsome twosome of all.
Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler both rank among the top ten National League starters in Wins Above Replacement according to Baseball Reference. On FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus, they rank in the top five.
They both rank among the top five NL starters in FIP, xFIP, xERA, SIERA, and DRA. They are each top ten in strikeout rate and walk rate, and top five in strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Moreover, both are veterans with proven track records of success, who are still in the prime years of their careers. They have both been All-Stars and Cy Young finalists.
With all that in mind, it’s hard to argue Nola and Wheeler aren’t the best one-two punch in the NL Wild Card race.
The Brewers — who currently have the lowest winning percentage among the three NL division leaders, and who therefore are likely to play one of the three Wild Card teams in the first round of the playoffs — also have a powerful pitching duo in Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff.
But while Burnes and Woodruff are a talented duo, Woodruff has dealt with injury concerns this season and hasn’t been quite as sharp as in years past. Nola and Wheeler, on the other hand, are both healthy and pitching as well as they ever have.
Aaron Nola has been dominant for the Phillies so far this season.
© Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
Every team in contention for the postseason has two talented starting pitchers at the top of their rotation. It’s hard to be a playoff team without at least two great starters.
Nola and Wheeler, however, are a cut above the rest. Both have been dominant workhorses this season, and both have proven themselves to be practically unhittable at their best.
It will take more than just two aces for the Phillies to go all the way this year. But if Philadelphia succeeds in the postseason, Nola and Wheeler are going to be a major reason why.
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