Assessing Cole Hamels’s Hall of Fame Case in His First Year on the Ballot

When the 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot was released in November, Cole Hamels stood above the other first-year candidates as having the best chance at induction.

The 2026 class of newly eligible players is one of the weakest ever, and it’s certainly possible that none of them ever enter Cooperstown. Hamels has an interesting case, though, and has a better shot than his peers.

The Phillies selected Hamels with the 17th pick in the 2002 MLB draft out of Rancho Bernardo High School in San Diego, and he made his debut four years later on May 12, 2006. Over the next decade he ranked among the best pitchers in the sport.

From 2006 to ‘16, Hamels ranked third among starting pitchers who tossed at least 1,000 innings in strikeouts (2,121), fourth in innings pitched (2,211 1/3), fifth in fWAR (45.2), seventh in wins (136), ninth in xFIP (3.42), and 12th in ERA (3.31). He somehow never finished in the top five in Cy Young voting, but turned in some dominant seasons. From 2010 to ‘12 he combined to go 43–26 with a 2.97 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 621 strikeouts against 157 walks in 640 innings.

In 2008, Hamels had one of the best playoff runs of all time, leading the Phillies to their first World Series title since 1980. During that postseason, he made five starts and went 4–0 with a 1.80 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 30 strikeouts against nine walks in 35 innings. He became only the fifth player to win MVP in both the League Championship Series and the World Series in the same year.

During the length of his career (2006–20), Hamels was second among qualified pitchers in innings (2,698) and ERA (3.43), third in strikeouts (2,560) and ninth in wins (163).

Despite his sustained excellence, Hamels was only an All-Star four times, and never finished higher than sixth in Cy Young voting.

On several metrics, Hamels falls short of projections for starting pitchers getting inducted. He has 59 career WAR, while the average starting pitcher in Cooperstown is at 72.9. His JAWS rating, which assesses a player’s worthiness for induction, stands at 48.2, while the average Hall of Fame pitcher checks in at 61.3. The one area he does show well is in his WAR/162, which is 4.7, compared to the average HOF pitcher at 4.5.

There is another number that bodes well for his chances, though. Hamels finished his career with an ERA+ of 123, which ranks inside the top 100 all-time. He’s ahead of dozens of Hall of Fame starters in that stat, including Don Drysdale, Nolan Ryan, CC Sabathia, Warren Spahn, Gaylord Perry, Steve Carlton, Fergie Jenkins and more.

As SI’s Tom Verducci noted:

Hamels won 163 games with an ERA+ of 123. Only nine other lefthanded pitchers ever did that, and all of them are in the Hall of Fame or will be: Rube Waddell, Lefty Grove, Carl Hubbell, Lefty Gomez, Hal Newhouser, Whitey Ford, Sandy Koufax, Randy Johnson and Clayton Kershaw.

That is Hamels’s best argument for inclusion. He has accomplished things only other Hall of Famers have.

Once Hamels left the Phillies in 2015, he suffered a number of injuries that dulled his effectiveness. An oblique muscle robbed him of a chunk of the '17 season with the Rangers, and in '19, another oblique injury and a shoulder issue sidelined him with the Cubs. In 2020, a triceps injury landed him on the 60-day IL with the Braves before a shoulder injury ended his season. He only pitched one game for Atlanta.

While he did make 84 starts over his final four seasons, Hamels was not quite himself, as his ERA rose to 3.94 and his WHIP increased to 1.28. Had he finished stronger, his case for Cooperstown might pack more punch.

On the surface, it appears Hamels fits into the “Hall of Very Good” mold, but the game is changing. With the skyrocketing number of injuries pitchers are facing these days, and lower expectations for innings pitched, the voters may reassess the career numbers starters need to reach Cooperstown. Whether Hamels receives a bust one day will likely depend on it.

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