© Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports
Philadelphia Phillies Win 96 games and Host Postseason Series - How Will it Happen?
The Philadelphia Phillies have won 96 or more games only five times in team history. Three of those instances occurred in the 20th century: 1976, 1977 and 1993. Only twice in their dynasty run did they win that many, 2010 and 2011.
Are the 2022 Phillies really as good as the great Philadelphia teams of yore? Yes, they are.
Currently the Phillies sit at a 90-win pace, a .556 winning percentage. That includes a horrid April and May under Joe Girardi when Philadelphia lacked identity, character and a true leader.
Going by run differential, the Phillies are on a 93-win pace. With 516 runs scored, sixth in MLB, and only 444 runs allowed, ninth overall, the club is well placed among their playoff-ready peers.
Again, those totals include the miserable first two months of the season, with no consideration for the current pace they've set under interim manager Rob Thomson.
Since Thomson took the reins, the Phillies are 38-19, a .667 win percentage. That indicates a 108-win pace over 162 games. Unfortunately, the Phillies don't have 162 games remaining, they have 54.
But a .667 win percentage over 54 games is 36-18. Add 36 to the Phillies 60-win total as of August 7th, and you have a 96-win ballclub.
To break it down even more simply, the Phillies have one of the easiest remaining schedules in MLB. Their upcoming opponents have a combined .483 winning percentage the rest of the season.
20 of their 54 games are against Washington Nationals, Chicago Cubs, Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds. Against those clubs so far in 2022, the Phillies have won 14 of 19.
If Philadelphia can improve that record by one game—which should be achievable given their deadline acquisitions—they'll carry a .750 winning percentage against bottom feeder teams.
15 out of 20 wins against those four clubs puts the Phillies at 75-53. After those games, Philadelphia has 34 remaining against the Miami Marlins, New York Mets, Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves, Toronto Blue Jays and Houston Astros.
Of those seven clubs, three are under .500, and nine of the 34 remaining games are against the Marlins. To reach 96 wins the Phillies must carry a .618 winning percentage against those teams.
That is undoubtedly a tall task. Philadelphia has done well recently by beating up on weaker clubs and maintaining a .500 winning percentage against better teams.
But a game changing variable is missing, one piece that solves the puzzle and brings everything together one of the most well rounded clubs in MLB: Bryce Harper.
2021 National League MVP Bryce Harper Accepts his Award at Citizens Bank Park.
© Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
When the 2021 NL MVP returns to the lineup in late-August, the Phillies will be adding baseball's best hitter into an already formidable lineup.
Even if upon Harper's return the pace slows ever so slightly, the Phillies have given themselves wiggle room.
The team is winning, the clubhouse is loose, there is good leadership on the field level in Kyle Schwarber and Rhys Hoskins, there is good leadership on a dugout level from Rob Thomson, and the players have even more lofty expectations upon Harper's return.
The Phillies are a well oiled machine, and the pieces are finally in place to break a September curse that has long haunted the ballclub.
More From SI's Inside The Phillies:
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- Have the Philadelphia Phillies Found Their Centerfielder of the Future?
- Andrew Painter is Off to a Historic Start
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- 18-Year-Old Phillies Prospect is Making History
- How did Philadelphia end up with Citizens Bank Park?
- How the Phillie Phanatic Came to be America's Favorite Sports Mascot
- This Unlikely Draft Pick Could be the Final Piece in the Phillies Next Blockbuster Trade
- Picking the Phillies' All-Time Single Season Lineup
- Drawing Comparisons to Harper, Phillies Prospect Wilson is Heating Up
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