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Oakland Athletics All-Star Blackburn Could be a Trade Match for Philadelphia Phillies

If the Oakland Athletics are shopping their All-Star pitcher Paul Blackburn at the trade deadline, the Philadelphia Phillies could be a good fit.

Author:
Leo Morgenstern
Jul 26, 2022 3:00 PM EDT

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Philadelphia Phillies

Paul Blackburn is not one of the flashiest names on the trading block, but he is someone to keep an eye on.

In 2022, the right-hander has made 19 starts with a 4.35 ERA. His FIP, xFIP, and xERA all sit just below four. Those aren't jaw-dropping numbers, but they are those of a competent, mid-rotation starter, and that's exactly what the Philadelphia Phillies are looking for.

Dave Dombrowski told Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer that starting pitching will be a priority of his at the trade deadline, but he is unlikely to go after one of the premium names on the market. He also told Todd Zolecki of MLB.com that he is not interested in trading away top prospects for one-year rentals.

Blackburn seems to fit the bill. He's a talented pitcher who can make a real difference for the Phillies down the stretch, but he's not going to cost as much as Luis Castillo, Frankie Montas, or Tyler Mahle.

He also has several years of team control left, and he won't be a free agent until after the 2025 season. Were he to come to Philadelphia, Blackburn could play a role in the rotation for years down the line. That should make it easier for Dombrowski to part with the prospects necessary to acquire him.

However, while Blackburn seems like a good fit in Philadelphia, there are a couple reasons to take pause.

Blackburn Has Been Struggling

One cause for concern is his recent performance. Through his first nine games, Blackburn was practically untouchable, posting a 1.70 ERA in 47.2 innings pitched. He allowed three earned runs in a start just once.

In his next seven, he looked more like a mid-rotation starter, pitching to a 4.35 ERA in 39.1 IP. He allowed three or more runs in four of those appearances.

His three most recent starts, unfortunately, have been rather catastrophic. He gave up 21 earned runs in 14.1 innings pitched, ballooning his ERA. While his strikeout rate was actually quite impressive, he allowed far too many walks, hits, and home runs during this stretch.

If the Phillies trade for Blackburn, they will have to be wary of which version of him they get. If he can pitch like he did to start the season, he'll be a steal at almost any price. But if his latest few games are a harbinger of things to come, Dombrowski should stay far, far away.

The Price Might Be Too High

Philadelphia should also be wary of the trade package Oakland is expecting. Blackburn is under team control for three more seasons after this one, so the Athletics might be seeking a big return for a cost-controlled player in the prime years of his career.

Money is one of the best assets Dombrowski has at his disposal, so he should not be paying a premium in prospects simply because Blackburn will be relatively inexpensive for the next three seasons.

Oakland is also in no rush to offload Blackburn, so the organization might not be willing to part with him unless they receive a particularly sweet offer. There are enough other pitchers on the trade market that Dombrowski should not feel pressured to meet the Athletics' demands if they are too high.

Is Blackburn Worth It?

If Dombrowski can strike the right deal, Blackburn definitely makes sense for the Phillies. He will help stabilize a rotation that has been relying on Bailey Falter and Cristopher Sánchez for too long. And if he can regain his form from early on in the season, he might be a huge difference maker down the stretch.

If, however, Oakland's asking price is too high or the Phillies are overly concerned about his recent struggles, Dombrowski should pivot to one of the other mid-rotation starters available.