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These Phillies are Primed for a Breakout in 2022

The 2021 Phillies suffered from a myriad of problems from injury to slumps. Their chances at a playoff run in 2022 rest of the hopes of the squad's lesser players rebounding from hardships and turning into reliable players.

Author:
Ben Silver
Feb 25, 2022 3:00 PM EST

The 2021 iteration of the Philadelphia Phillies suffered from a variety of maladies. From injuries to slumps and a useless bullpen, perhaps none were more harmful, but less apparent, than the fact that the Phillies in 2021 were too top heavy a squad to ever succeed.

One look at the 2021 Phillies baseball-reference page and immediately the incredible performances of Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler and Ranger Suárez stand out. However, the statlines of players like Didi Gregorius, Alec Bohm, Aaron Nola and Zach Eflin will fade into obscurity with time.

Why were their 2021 seasons so mediocre, or in the case of Gregorius and Bohm, terrible? As always the underlying peripherals and analytics unravel that mystery, perhaps they too can predict if these players will see a return to form in 2022.

Alec Bohm

Bohm’s 2021 was without doubt the most disappointing of the bunch. His emergence in 2020 was electric, slashing .338/.400/.481 over 180 plate appearances, he galvanized the Phillies in late-August and early September.

In 2021, his OPS dropped .243 from .881 to .647, his BAbip dropped too, from .410 to .327. Obviously a BAbip of .410 is entirely unsustainable, even .327 is a highly impressive BAbip.

Alec Bohm is called out on strikes against Washington in July.
© Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

For most players, these numbers would coincide with a drop in batted ball analytics, but Bohm’s exit velocity increased in 2021, from 90.2 mph in 2020 to 92.0 mph. That average exit velocity places him 89th percentile league-wide among MLB hitters. Even his xBA was 70th percentile at .266, far above his actual total of .247.

Still, Bohm failed in other advanced metrics like barrel% (6.6%) and wOBA (.285), but advanced stats remain consistent in that he underperformed his expected numbers.

Bohm will have to make major adjustments should he find his rookie year form, but even if he continues his 2021 form, he should rebound to a league average hitter.

Didi Gregorius

Bohm’s left-side infield partner Gregorius also had an intensely disappointing season. After signing a two-year/$28 million deal during the 2021 offseason, the Phillies and President Dave Dombrowski hoped Gregorius could put a hammerlock on the shortstop position until top prospect Bryson Stott was entirely ready to take the position in 2023.

Instead, Gregorius put up even worse numbers than Bohm, slashing .209/.270/.370 with -10 DRS. Unlike Bohm, Gregorius was never demoted to triple-A, but he lost his consistent starting role to Freddy Galvis and Ronald Torreyes by season’s end.

While analytics do say Gregorius saw a decline in 2021, it should not have been anywhere near as dramatic as it was. His BAbip dropped from .285 in 2020 all the way to .217, a career-low.

Like Bohm, Gregorius’s lowered BAbip also coincided with a rise in exit velocity, from 83.4 mph to 85.8 mph. Neither of those numbers are impressive, but Gregorius’ career average exit velocity is only 85.9.

One explanation for Gregorius’ failure in 2021 was a dip in line drives and a rise in fly balls. In 2020, Gregorius hit line drives at a 28.9% clip, in 2021, that fell to 21.8%, respectively his fly ball-rate rose from 20.0% to 26.0% with a 4.6% increase in strikeouts.

Didi Gregorius is hit by a pitch in August against the New York Mets.
© Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports

While these numbers do not bode well for Gregorius’ 2022, it would be almost impossible for him to maintain a .217 BAbip. Expect Gregorius to improve in 2022, perhaps he’ll never be the player he once was, but he’ll just as likely never repeat his 2021 campaign.

Aaron Nola

One Phillie who might have higher expectations for 2022 than Gregorius had in 2021 is Aaron Nola. His woes in 2021 are well documented. Via the eye-test, it was apparent Nola had lost faith in his fastball command. Thus, he began throwing his curveball in two strike counts. Batters began to anticipate this and Nola floundered.

Without knowledge of Nola’s lost confidence, Baseball Savant sees Nola one of the National League’s elite pitchers. Last year, Nola’s ERA was 4.63, but his xERA was 3.35, he also posted the lowest walk-rate of his career 5.2%.

For outcomes that Nola could directly control, he was still dominant. That dominance is reflected in a 3.37 FIP and 5.72 BB/K.

Not only was Nola failed by his confidence and luck, but also by poor defense which baseball-reference believes added 0.38 to his ERA.

One area in which Nola did get precipitously worse was his FB%. In 2020, Nola held batters to just 13.7% fly ball rate, that more than doubled in 2021 to 27.0%, while his ground ball rate fell 8.0%.

If Nola can solve that one issue and regain command of his fastball, NL hitters should prepare to face the best one-two punch in the NL next year between Wheeler and Nola.

Zach Eflin

Behind those two and Ranger Suárez in the Phillies rotation is one of the longest tenured Phillies, Zach Eflin. Eflin came to the Phillies organization in Dec. 2014 in the deal which sent Jimmy Rollins to the Dodgers.

Eflin has been a model of consistent mediocrity since 2018, posting an ERA between 4.36 and 3.97 every year through 2021. However, in that span he has shown flashes of brilliance. Since 2016 and his Phillies debut, Eflin has spun five masterpiece shutouts, his latest coming Sept. 2020.

Zach Eflin is visited on the mound by medical trainer Paul Buchheit in Miami
© Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Since that COVID-shortened season, Eflin’s ERA has been 4.10, but his FIP has been 3.58. That speaks to a level of luck that Eflin is not receiving on the defensive end. Like Nola, baseball-reference credits the Phillies defense for an additional .44 of ERA in 2021, postulating that his ERA should have been 3.73 with a league average defense.

Meanwhile, Eflin established himself as MLB’s best control artist, leading both leagues with a 3.6% walk-rate, he also posted a very respectable 30.4% chase rate on balls out of the strike zone.

His xERA of 3.87 reflects those numbers and there’s no reason to think Eflin can’t improve on them in 2022. If he does, the Phillies could have the best one-two-three-four starter combo in baseball next year.