Red Sox Predicted To Lose $38.5 Million All-Star To Orioles In Free Agency

How much does this free agent's destination affect the Sox?

May 6, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; A detailed view of a Baltimore Orioles hat and glove in the dugout against the Atlanta Braves in the first inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

By all indications, the Boston Red Sox did Lucas Giolito a favor at the start of free agency.

The Red Sox did not tender Giolito a qualifying offer, so teams looking to sign him in free agency won't have to give up a draft pick to do so. Then again, based on the caliber of pitchers who accepted qualifying offers, maybe the market is at a point where Giolito wishes he'd gotten one.

After finishing up his two-year, $38.5 million deal with the Red Sox, Giolito's late-season elbow injury doesn't seem to be hampering him at all as the offseason has begun. But if a Boston reunion isn't particularly likely, where should Red Sox fans worry about him possibly ending up?

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Giolito predicted to join AL East rival Orioles

On Friday, Bleacher Report's Joel Reuter registered a prediction: Giolito would sign with the Baltimore Orioles, who struck out on all their starting pitching plans this past season and appear to be making a push not to let the same free agency mistakes happen in 2026.

"Full seasons from Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish will go a long way after they made a combined 24 starts, so one quality veteran arm to slot somewhere in the No. 2/3 range in their rotation might be all (the Orioles) need," Reuter wrote. "Lucas Giolito reestablished himself as that caliber of starter after a strong campaign in Boston."

In 26 starts, Giolito managed a 3.41 ERA in 145 innings, and he pulled off a 10-4 win/loss record. On the surface, he absolutely looks the part of a No. 3 starter.

There was a lot of luck involved in those numbers, though, as Giolito had some of the best defense played behind him in all of baseball and also gave up lots of loud contact that somehow didn't leave the ballpark. His 4.17 FIP was probably a truer indication of the sort of ERA he should have had.

Giolito rightfully doesn't seem to be Boston's top target at the moment, but that doesn't mean he couldn't wreak havoc on them for a game or two in an Orioles uniform.

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