Red Sox Predicted To Make Catastrophic Mistake In Nationals Trade

As the Boston Red Sox publicly state their desire to improve the starting rotation, we'll see tons of predictions roll out over the next few weeks ahead of the winter meetings.

A prediction isn't gospel, but it allows us to start thinking ahead to all of the future implications of the moves the Red Sox could make. And by talking through some of those scenarios, we can start making judgments on whether those are the moves they should make.

One recent prediction, for example, has the Red Sox making a bold trade with the Washington Nationals, and the more thought we've given it here, the more we're staunchly against it.

Should Red Sox trade Payton Tolle?

On Friday, Bleacher Report's Joel Reuter predicted that the Red Sox would acquire Washington Nationals left-hander MacKenzie Gore for a package centered around Payton Tolle, who struggled a bit in his 16 1/3 major league innings down the stretch, but rocketed through the Boston system this year after debuting in High-A.

"The Nationals might still be a year or two from contention, which could make attracting top-end starting pitching talent difficult, and there is also the matter of a potential MacKenzie Gore trade shaking up their rotation further," wrote Reuter.

"In this round of predictions, Gore is going to the Red Sox for a package built around young left-hander Payton Tolle."

There are many cases in which getting too worked up about the cost of a trade is overblown. The Red Sox were completely right to give up the four prospects they did for Garrett Crochet last winter, even if all four wind up panning out for the Chicago White Sox.

Not only is Gore not on Crochet's level, though, but Tolle could very well be better than him in short order.

Gore made his first All-Star team this past season, but slumped in the second half and wound up with a 3-WAR season and 4.17 ERA. Stats shouldn't be the main focus here, though, as it's all about potential when acquiring someone from an organization like Washington that hasn't had a clue about developing pitching in the last half-decade.

Gore's Baseball Savant page is a lot bluer than one might expect. He gives up hard contact, walks too many batters, and doesn't have a pitch with an expected slugging percentage below .299 (slider). The Red Sox could certainly refine some things, but he's far from a finished product, and he'd only be under control for two years.

Tolle, meanwhile, is under control for six years, throws harder, gets insane extension, and if we had to put our money on one of these two to be the first to receive a Cy Young vote, he's who we're taking.

It might well take someone like Tolle to pry Gore loose from the Nationals this offseason. And the Red Sox do need rotation help, But that doesn't mean they have to make the move for the sake of making one.

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