Red Sox Star's Free Agency Projection Hints At Offseason Dilemma For Boston

Where would the Boston Red Sox be without Lucas Giolito?

The 31-year-old Giolito takes the mound for Boston on Saturday, needing a win against the Arizona Diamondbacks to keep the losing streak from reaching three games. It's also a major step in the veteran's quest to reach free agency.

Giolito entered play on Saturday at 125 1/3 innings on the season (and an excellent 3.38 ERA). If he gets 14 2/3 more, he'll trigger a clause in his contract that shifts a $14 million club option for next year (which the Red Sox would surely exercise) to a $19 million mutual option (that Giolito would surely decline).

MLB Trade Rumors projects Giolito's free agency

Assuming Giolito gets about halfway there on Saturday and picks up just one or two more starts the rest of the way, he'll be headed to the open market. The Red Sox could tag him with a qualifying offer, which he'd also decline, and then what?

It helps to know what Giolito might cost, and on Friday, Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors placed him in a group of recent free agents with actual contract values between three years, $67 million and four years, $80 million, as a means of projection.

"Giolito is a lock to decline his half of the mutual option, collect that buyout and return to free agency in search of a multi-year deal," wrote Adams.

"The Sox could — and likely would — counter with a qualifying offer, but the hefty contracts for mid-rotation arms like Eduardo Rodriguez (four years, $80MM), Sean Manaea (three years, $75MM), Taijuan Walker (four years, $72MM), Jameson Taillon (four years, $68MM) and Luis Severino (three years, $67MM) in recent offseasons all suggest that Giolito can reasonably seek a pricey three- or four-year deal ahead of what’ll be his age-31 season."

Let's assume Giolito gets a four-year deal and it checks in around that $80 million mark. It's a fair deal, as illustrated by Adams' market value history, but the Red Sox's own recent history shows they probably wouldn't be stoked to pay that kind of money for a pitcher heading toward his mid-30s.

Boston has Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello, and Payton Tolle as near-locks for next year's opening day rotation. They also have Kutter Crawford, Patrick Sandoval, Hunter Dobbins, and Richard Fitts coming off the injured list. Where does that leave Giolito, who has been so vital to the group this year?

There are a lot of questions for the front office to sort out, and the possibility of a trade for a more impressive No. 2 starter also remains a possibility.

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