2023 NBA Draft: Evaluating Duke’s Dereck Lively II

Dereck Lively II numbers and stats don’t pop when looking at it but the eye test and skills he possesses suggest that he’ll translate to the NBA. It wouldn’t be shocking at all if he has a Myles Turner type of trajectory in the NBA due to the skills they possess. Let’s dive into some of his strengths and his biggest area of improvement.

Rim Protection

Lively is a top two rim protecting prospect in this draft as he’s clearly behind projected number one pick, Victor Wembanyama. What's most impressive is his timing and overall size when defending the paint. His overall size and length intimidates a lot of offensive players when attacking the paint due to his elite shot-blocking ability.

He has improved as a defender in the pick and roll which is one of the most important skills a center needs in today’s NBA. He’ll become one of the best shot-blockers in the NBA the moment he’s drafted. Due to the lack of top tier center talent in the draft and with the skills he possesses, it wouldn’t be surprising for a team to take a swing on him in the lottery due to his interior defense.

Finishing Ability

Lively is an elite lob threat and will thrive as a roll-man at the next level with more floor spacing and better guard play. He has a good understanding of knowing when to roll, how to set screens, has great timing, and quickness jumping off the ground to catch a lob. He legitimately tries to dunk everything around the rim. Lively one of the most efficient bigs in all of college basketball inside the paint.

Over 75% of his made field goals were dunks. he doesn’t have the best touch on his layups but with his above the rim finishing ability, it may not affect him as much as it would a small guard. He has a clear role in the NBA as a screener, roller, and rim finisher. Lively does everything you want at a good or better level for a role playing center.

Shooting Potential

Lively only shot 15.4% from three in his only season at Duke but there's still reason to believe in his shooting upside. I don't think you'll be able to leave him open in the NBA by the time his rookie contract is expiring. During his final AAU season he shot 31.3% from three. Lively has solid shot mechanics and is at his best shooting the ball while standing still.

The 7-footer has the potential to be a legit threat in the pick and pop in a couple of years. We have seen in the past with bigs like Karl Anthony-Towns who shot it well in high school, didn't shoot it in college, but ended up shooting it in the NBA. Maybe it’s a similar case here? Time will obviously tell with Lively as the jumper still needs some work, but the potential is there.

Biggest Area of Improvement

The lack of overall offensive polish is the biggest area Lively needs to develop. He lacks any kind of creation skills and has a limited amount of post moves. It's fair to question the kind of touch he possesses. The free-throw and 3-point percentages doesn't suggest that his touch is that good. The eye test definitely suggests that his touch is pretty average at best. Lively will likely never be a legit scoring threat or someone that you can give the ball to and go get you a bucket.

He relies heavily on guards to set him up for baskets. Lively's offensive ceiling as a scorer isn’t very high which is fine to a degree given his archetype and what he’ll be asked to do in the NBA. Despite the offensive limitations he possesses, there’s still a valuable role in the NBA for him on that end so this shouldn’t be the deciding factor on if he busts out of the NBA.

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