Adjusting Expectations For Chet Holmgren's Upcoming Season

After being injured throughout his first season, it's no surprise that everyone is excited to watch Chet Holmgren of the Oklahoma City Thunder play this season. After all, Holmgren was arguably the most anticipated rookie of last year due to the combination of his skills and size.

Holmgren is currently playing in Summer League and is scheduled to play this season, which of course means expectations.

So let's talk a bit about those, and what is fair to expect of him in what will be his debut season.

First and foremost, for any player who is coming off a full missed season, it's going to take some time to regain competitive rhythm. Holmgren will have to balance not only that, but also a steep increase in competition, as he's never played against proper NBA players before during an actual game. That means working double duty early on, having to find his way against the world's elite, and having to figure out how his body gets re-acclimated to playing in a competitive environment.

How long will that take? It depends on the player. Holmgren's game is, fortunately for him, based on skill, touch and smarts. His ability to shoot, pass and, well, be 7-foot-1, hasn't gone anywhere, and he might hit the ground running in those areas.

Where he might need more time is as a raw shot-creator, and maintaining a live dribble for an extended period of time. It's hard enough for most bigs to maintain an active dribble when making it to the NBA, but for someone who's just spent a year sidelined, it's probably for the best if we dial up our patience meter.

Defensively, Holmgren has a hidden advantage, and I'm not talking about his wingspan. While he was injured, he had ample opportunity to learn the system, identify patterns and observe opposing player tendencies. His defensive understanding should be miles ahead of where he was a year ago, at least cognitively, which only makes it a question of getting his body to follow along.

One aspect of expectations, which particularly fans will need to understand, is that Holmgren is joining a Thunder rotation that has grown better since the day he was drafted.

Jalen and Jaylin Williams both had highly productive rookie seasons and are unquestionably keen on taking another step this season. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 31 points per game and elevated himself to superstar status.

Josh Giddey improved further, becoming one of the better young all-around players in basketball, and finally, the Thunder made additional picks, including Kentucky guard Cason Wallace.

Point is: Holmgren might simply not produce huge numbers due to a rather insane amount of quality players around him. That's not to say he won't produce, but the raw stats are almost assured to be lower than they would have been, had he been healthy to start last season.

Fortunately, raw stats mean diddly squat. For the Thunder, Holmgren just needs to fulfill certain areas of responsibility. He'll be asked to protect the rim, take open 3-pointers, play the dunker spot, and make quick reads when the ball is in his hands. And that's the right approach. Don't put too much on his plate to begin with, especially when there are so many players around him, who can handle certain responsibilities themselves.

In fact, you could argue that this is the best possible way for Holmgren to start his career. He'll have a streamlined role, can grow at his own pace, and scale back whenever needed.

However you slice it, that's a win for both him and the Thunder.

Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

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