Illinois’ Guard Continuing NBA Draft Ascendance as March Nears

Nearing the mid-way point of February, we now have enough sample to take real stock in the 2025-26 college season in terms of the NBA Draft. And that bodes well for players like Illinois guard Keaton Wagler, who has rapidly ascended the draft ranks, and is now continuing his star production for the Illini.

The 2026 class came in with plenty of long-time stars: AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer, Darryn Peterson and more. And it’s often hard to relative newcomers to break into long-solidified rankings. Wagler’s doing just that, and his outing against Wisconsin on Tuesday night, even in a loss, played a key role.

The fresh 19-year-old again led his team in scoring, tacking on 34 points on 12-for-23 shooting, including five triples on 10 tries from beyond the arc. He also added a team-high seven assists, though five turnovers were tacked on.

Wagler doesn’t have premier athleticism, but has a clear sense for space and positioning, and the elite shot-making to tie everything together. He’s shooting a blistering 44% from beyond the arc in what’s sure to be his lone season with Illinois, leveraging that into downhill play centered around pace and touch.

The Badgers saw plenty of this on Tuesday night, as he hit threes, coasted into the mid-range for smooth jumpers, and hit scoops and decals in the paint. The Illini couldn’t come away with the win, but that certainly wasn’t due to Wagler.

Keaton Wagler with 34 vs. Wisconsin. We're far past fluky at this point. Clearly a special shotmaker with unteachable feel using pacing/footwork creating space and driving. Averaging 24.6 points, 5.7 assists in 7 games since Boswell went down. pic.twitter.com/MtufrOQLwU
— Jonathan Wasserman (@NBADraftWass) February 11, 2026

Wagler came in as a four-star recruit with virtually no draft hype. A 6-foot-6 guard-slash-wing, it seemed only his head coach in Brad Underwood knew the potential he had.

“We knew he was good this summer when he was going against Kylan Boswell,” Underwood said to Andy Katz on The Sideline podcast. “I knew it was a different level, we scrimmaged Florida in what was just a gross scrimmage — So I knew the toughness piece then was going to kick in. We just had to figure out how to use him, whether it was on the ball, off the ball.”

Now, Wagler’s becoming a household name across the draft space. He first earned late-first-round stock, then climbed to potential lottery pick with a 46-point outing at Purdue. From there, he's continued to look the part of an offensive star with room for growth, and is trying to cement himself in the second tier of players alongside Caleb Wilson and Kingston Flemings.

It's been a meteoric rise for Wagler, who isn't likely to hear too many names before his own on draft night 2026.

On the season, he's now averaging 18.5 points on 45% shooting, with 4.9 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game.