NBA Draft: The Best Guard and Forward Bucket-Getters Heading into the NCAA Postseason
While defense and rebounding are vital parts to success in the game of basketball, you can’t win if you don’t put the ball in the basket. Cerebro Sports has put together a metric that:
- Blends the two major components of scoring - volume and efficiency - to create a role-neutral representation of scoring ability.
- If priority were given to per game scoring at high usage, skills like cutting or spot up shooting would be undervalued. If efficiency were the more weighted element, players who are not primary creators & benefit from advantage created by others would be overrepresented.
- Put plainly, we believe that a 70th percentile high volume scorer & a 70th percentile low usage creator grade out more similarly than was previously possible with a comprehensive metric.
Each skill score is graded on the same 100-plus point scale: 60-plus is good, 80-plus is great, and 100-plus is elite.
We now have a complete season of college basketball to identify some of the prospects that have really been scoring the ball well and impressing scouts.
Not only are players who have not been tracked for at least 20 games and average 20 minutes per game filtered out, players who are not consistently looked at as 2023 NBA Draft prospects have been filtered as well.
The focus will stay on the non-big prospects which will also leave out player’s 6-foot-9 or taller.
Kris Murrary (Forward | Iowa) - 84 PSP
The 22-year-old forward led his Iowa Hawkeyes team to a record of 19-12 and a 3-seed in the Big Ten conference tournament but got upset in their first game.
Murray is the engine for a Hawkeyes offense that is one of the best in the entire country and 17th overall in points per game averaging over 80.
The Cedar Rapids, IA native led his team in scoring at over 20 points per game to go along with 48.7% from the field, 34% from the 3-point line and 74% from the charity stripe.
Murray also chipped in almost three offensive rebounds per game.
Much like his brother, Keegan, before him, Kris has had a breakout campaign after becoming a more focal point of the offense.
Murray increased every single one of his individual Cerebro metrics which led to an overall C-RAM score of 11.5.
Considering how seamlessly Keegan has transitioned into the NBA game it will be very interesting to see how high Kris ends up being selected but he does seem very much intrinched in the late first round conversation.
Brandin Podziemski (Guard | Santa Clara) - 84 PSP
What a breakout season it was for sophomore guard, Brandin Podziemski, of Santa Clara.
Podziemski grew up in Muskego, WI and went to the University of Illinois for his freshman season where he barely got off the bench getting 66 total minutes of playing time.
The transfer out west was the right decision as he led the Broncos to a record of 23-9 and put up ridiculous numbers along the way.
The 6-foot-5 guard scored just under 20 points per game on shooting splits of 48-44-77.
What makes Podziemski so intriguing as a prospect is his all around impact on the game.
Along with those big time scoring numbers he also grabs just under nine rebounds along with 3.5 assists and just under two steals per game.
All of this adds up to an impressive C-RAM score of 12.1 with him having three different individual metrics over 80.
His overall draft position will be extremely interesting to follow based on athleticism concerns. You can find mocks that have him from anywhere in the 20s all the way to late 2nd round.
Tucker DeVries (Wing/Forward | Drake) - 81 PSP
Tucker DeVries led his Drake Bulldogs to a record of 27-7, a conference tournament championship and a trip to the NCAA tournament.
The Waukee, IA native built on a strong freshman campaign and improved in almost every statistical way in year two.
Like most everyone on this list, he averaged right around 20 points per game and did so on very efficient shooting numbers. The most impressive of which was his 39% from the 3-point line on 6.8 attempts per game.
While there is no denying DeVries is an absolute bucket getter, his overall C-RAM score of 9.9 does make you wonder if there is more to be desired with his all around game. HIs point scoring prowess (PSP) and 3-point efficiency (3PE) are great.
Where he leaves some room for improvement is with his floor general skills (FGS), his assists per game did go down in his sophomore season, and his overall around the rim (ATR).
DeVries draft stock is another one that will be interesting to monitor but one may benefit the most from a couple of big games in the Big Dance.
Jalen Pickett (Guard | Penn State) - 80 PSP
Jalen Pickett essentially did everything for his Penn State team this season leading them to a record of 19-12 and incredible run in the Big Ten tournament.
Pickett led his team in scoring, rebounding, assists and steals which all contributed to one of the best Cerebro sports profiles you will find.
The 6-foot-4 guard checks in with an overall C-RAM score of 12.5 and is 70+ in every single individual metric.
This means that Pickett was not only scoring the ball but doing it from the 3-point line, 39% on 3.5 attempts, along with creating for teammates, seven assists per game, and being impactful defensively.
It should also be noted that this was not the first time the Siena transfer has put up impressive metrics.
He put up gold C-RAM scores in all three of those seasons at Siena and even had a solid score of 8.9 in his first season with the Nittany Lions.
Yet again, it will be fascinating to follow his NBA draft stock considering the archetype of player that he is and the fact that he is already 23-years-old.
Keyontae Johnson (Wing/Forward - Kansas State) - 80 PSP
The final player to make our list is another 23-year-old prospect that transferred schools but put up impressive numbers at both stops.
Keyontae Johnson led a Kansas State team to a 23-8 record this season while pacing them in both points and rebounds.
Johnson is a 6-foot-5 power wing who averaged just under 18 points per game and did so on insane efficiency.
The Norfolk, VA native is shooting over 50% from the field along with 42% from the 3-point line on 3.2 attempts and 73% from the free throw line.
The FGS is what brings Johnson’s C-RAM score down to 9.7 as he actually averages more turnovers than assists.
Even as a top 15 team, Kansas State is a team that can often fly under the radar. A run in the NCAA tournaments could really do some good for Johnson’s overall draft stock. Right now he seems to be a late 2nd round to UDFA type prospect.
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