NBA Draft: The Productive Young Athlete Query — Part One
With the NBA Draft quickly approaching, everyone wants to discover a diamond in the rough.
To do this, it has become increasingly popular to design statistical queries to identify NBA talent. That being said, it is of the utmost importance to consider the logic behind the factors included in these queries. While exploring different statistics, I came across a combination of criteria that is logical through the “eye” test and reliably predicts talent. Let’s call it the Productive Young Athlete (PYA) query.
Before we dive into the statistical analysis, it’s important to define what “stick” means in my study. In this case, I considered a prospect to “stick” if they played five-plus seasons in the NBA. Prospects in the 2019 NBA Draft met the criteria of “sticking” if they are still in the league, due to the impossibility of them reaching five NBA seasons.
The Main Study
Since 2008, 78% of Freshmen with a MIN%≥40, BPM≥7.5, and 4+ Total Dunks throughout the season “stick” in the NBA. Out of the 76 prospects who matched these four criteria from the 2008-2019 NBA Drafts, 59 of them went on to play five-plus seasons in the NBA or are currently in the league. Although it’s fun to toggle around with different queries and Barttorvik.com to discover what metrics are most indicative of future success for prospects, it’s important to ask “What do these four criteria really mean? What picture does it paint about prospects with these four criteria in common?”
Well, let’s define each. A freshman is the first-year of a player at a college or university, indicating a young age of around 18 years old. MIN% is the percentage of the team’s total minutes that a prospect plays in. These two criteria alone help narrow prospects down into college basketball players that are young, but are already trusted by their college coach and talented enough to play significant (defined here as ≥40% of the team’s total) minutes.
Next indicator, and this is the most important one, is a BPM greater than or equal to 7.5. Box Plus-Minus, or BPM, is a box score estimate of the points per 100 possessions a player contributed above a league-average player, translated to an average team. Widely considered as one of the most relevant publicly-available advanced statistics in the basketball world, BPM is applied to the NBA game as well. For example, to show its relevancy, the three NBA players with the highest BPMs this past season were the three favorites for MVP: Nikola Jokic (13.0), Joel Embiid (9.2), and Luka Doncic (8.9). Therefore, if a prospect is a freshman with a MIN%≥40 and a BPM≥7.5, this means they are likely to be young, playing almost a majority of their team’s minutes, and contributing to the game significantly over a replacement-level player when out on the floor.
The final layer to this statistical Productive Young Athlete query is the threshold of four total dunks throughout the season. Despite this not seeming like a lot, adding this criteria increases the hit-rate from 71% to 78% while only decreasing the sample size from 85 to 76 prospects since 2008. This dunk threshold helps to incorporate a baseline athleticism metric to weed out a few prospects who are productive in college but lack basic athleticism to be in the NBA.
Therefore, freshmen with a MIN%≥40, BPM≥7.5, and 4 Total Dunks throughout the season (Productive Young Athlete query) have a 78% chance to “stick” in the NBA historically due to them being young players trusted and talented enough to play big minutes, significantly contributing positively to the game, and having a baseline level of athleticism.
Who Gets Left Out?
No analytical metric can be perfect, and it’s important to analyze why certain elite prospects might get left out of my four criteria – especially the threshold of 4 total dunks. Out of the nine players that the sample cuts from 85 to 76 players when instituting the 4-dunk threshold, four of them are 6’3” or taller. None of them “stuck” in the NBA. Out of the five freshmen with a MIN%≥40, BPM≥7.5, but less than four total dunks in their season who are shorter than 6’3”, two of them “stuck” in the NBA. These two players are Tyus Jones and Trae Young, both of whom are impactful both at the rim and as primary ball-handlers without needing to dunk.
Who Didn’t Stick?
You may be wondering: “If these four criteria combined are so indicative, who are the 17 prospects who didn’t stick who met all four since 2008?”
Let's walk through each year:
2008: In the 2008 criteria-meeting class, Robbie Hummel and LaceDarius Dunn both met all four criteria but neither played five-plus seasons in the NBA. Robbie Hummel dealt with nagging injuries in his first two years in the NBA, and continued to deal with them overseas professionally. He retired in 2017 to become one of the best TV analysts in college basketball. On the other hand, LaceDarius Dunn had significant off-the-court question-marks and was indefinitely suspended from the Baylor Bears men’s basketball team.
2009: All three of the players who met the criteria “stuck” in the NBA, which included the likes of Gordon Hayward, Greg Monroe and Tyreke Evans.
2010: Xavier Henry was the only player not to “stick,” and he played in 185 NBA games over the course of five seasons and ruptured his left Achilles tendon nine games into his fifth season. Unfortunately, this ended his career and he was waived by the Lakers.
2011: Javon McCrea was the only player not to “stick,” and this was due to a clear lack of a perimeter game. He attempted only 4 threes his entire career at 6-foot-7 and shot only 66.7% from the free throw line. Lack of a perimeter game, in addition to unfortunate injuries, are the most common causes of why prospects didn’t “stick.”
2012: Three players didn’t “stick” out of the seven who qualified, and all three of whom struggled from the perimeter.
2013: Two players didn’t “stick” out of the six who qualified: Anthony Bennett and Sam Dekker. Regarding Bennett, nothing more really needs to be said as he is widely considered one of the bigger draft misses of all time. From an on-court standpoint, there’s not a ton of reasoning a college player like him wouldn’t “stick.” Dekker, meanwhile, appeared in 201 NBA games and fell just short of playing for five-plus NBA seasons (No, I’m not counting his one minute played in ine game on the Raptors in the 2021-22 NBA season).
2014: The one player who met the criteria “stuck” in the NBA (Joel Embiid).
2015: Eight out of nine players who met the criteria “stuck” in the NBA. The only player who didn't "stick" was Gary Clark out of Cincinnati, and he played 170 games over his four NBA seasons.
2016: The only player who qualified this season that didn’t “stick” was Mike Daum. The 6’9” South Dakota State phenom was a poor defender and didn’t provide much NBA-level athleticism.
2017: Two of the thirteen players who qualified this year didn’t “stick,” and they were Justin Patton and TJ Leaf. Patton needed two surgeries to repair a broken left foot that limited him in his first season, then suffered a broken right foot the season after. Patton is another unfortunate example of injuries cutting a career short. TJ Leaf played in 146 NBA games over his first four NBA seasons, but eventually fizzled out of the rotations for both the Pacers and Blazers and subsequently signed a deal in China.
2018: Two players didn't "stick" out of the nine who qualified: Zhaire Smith and Jarrett Culver. Smith unfortunately fractured his foot in camp prior to his rookie season beginning, then dealt with a lingering knee injury the rest of his two-year career on the Sixers. Culver suffered a right ankle injury in his second season that required surgery and played 144 games over his four-year career. Although ten of those games were played during the 2022-23 season, being cut in the middle of the season by his third team in four years forces me to label him as a player that didn't "stick."
2019: Two players who met the criteria didn’t “stick” in the NBA, and they were Nick Musynski and Ignas Brazdeikis. Musynski, like a couple of the other prospects who didn’t “stick” despite meeting the four criteria, struggled shooting on the perimeter. When he qualified as a freshman, he was shooting 19% from beyond the arc. Despite improving his 3-point percentage as his college career progressed, Musynski wasn't heavily considered as a draftable prospect.
Ignas Brazdeikis is a unique case. Despite being considered someone who didn't "stick," as he appeared in only 65 NBA games over his first three NBA seasons, he just won a championship with Žalgiris Kaunas in his home country of Lithuania this past season and attended the Raptors' free agent minicamp this past Monday.
Therefore, out of the 17 players who qualified by meeting the four criteria of Freshman with a MIN%≥40, BPM≥7.5, and 4 Total Dunks and didn't "stick":
- 6 of them struggled with significant or continuous injuries
- 5 of them lacked any sort of perimeter shooting
- 5 of them played in over 143 NBA Games over four-plus seasons
- 2 of them lacked significant degrees of NBA-level athleticism
- 1 of them had significant off-court issues
- 1 of them is widely considered one of the biggest draft misses of all time
- 1 of them worked out for an NBA team as recently as this week
*Some of the 17 prospects suffered from multiple of these commonalities
Note: Although a lack of a perimeter game appears to be a common occurrence about players that met the four criteria but didn’t “stick,” incorporating an additional threshold of 10 three-point attempts over the course of the season keeps the hit-rate at 78% but drastically decreases the sample size from 76 prospects to 60 since 2008.
Projecting Into The Future: What Players Qualified for the Productive Young Athlete query from 2020-23?
2020: There were four players in college basketball who met all four criteria of freshman with a MIN%≥40, BPM≥7.5, and four Total Dunks in 2020, and they were Onyeka Okongwu, Vernon Carey Jr, Trayce Jackson-Davis and Oscar Tshiebwe. History suggests 78% of these four will “stick” in the NBA, meaning around three of them are likely to play in the NBA for five-plus seasons. Okongwu appeared in 80 games this past season for the Atlanta Hawks, averaging 23 minutes per game and just short of 10 points. per game. He also provides value defensively and on the offensive glass, finishing last season with a 4.9 BLK% and a 12.7 ORB%.
Vernon Carey Jr. appeared in only 11 games for the Wizards this past season, but has shown potential in the G-League. He averaged 20.7 PPG for the Capital City Go-Go in fourteen appearances this past season.
Trayce Jackson-Davis is considered to be an early second round pick, while Oscar Tshiebwe is likely to hear his name called later in the second round, or will sign immediately after the draft on a two-way deal. Be on the lookout for three of these guys above to “stick” in the NBA.
2021: Evan Mobley and Jalen Suggs were the two players to meet the four criteria in 2021, and both ended up being top-five picks. Mobley finished third in voting for the Defensive Player of the Year and was named to the NBA All-Defensive First Team in only his second season in the NBA. Suggs struggled with injuries his rookie year but started in forty-five of the forty-eight games he played. This past season, Suggs' efficiency increased, converting on 42% of his field goals attempts (compared to 36% his rookie season) and converted 33% of his 3-point attempts (compared to 21% his rookie season). Although the efficiency remains shaky, Suggs has shown promise that he can part of the Magic's future plans.
2022: There were four freshmen with a MIN%≥40, BPM≥7.5, and four total dunks in 2022. Two of the freshmen were Chet Holmgren and Jabari Smith Jr, both of whom were drafted in the top-3 last draft. While Holmgren suffered a season-ending foot injury before he could play his first NBA game, Smith played in 79 games for the Rockets this past season and averaged 12.8 PPG in 31 MPG.
The two other freshmen who qualified were Kennedy Chandler and DaRon Holmes II. Chandler was shockingly released with one game remaining in his rookie season, as the Grizzlies needed to make room for Kenny Lofton Jr .due to frontcourt injuries. It is unclear whether or not he will be signed by an NBA team prior to this upcoming season.
DaRon Holmes II played his sophomore season at Dayton this past season and is 6-foot-10, 230-pounds. He averaged 18 points per game while shooting 59% from the floor this past season. Additionally, he was impactful both defensively and on-the-glass, averaging 8.1 rebounds (10.9 ORB%) and 1.9 blocks (6.5 BLK%) on 34 minutes per game. Lastly, he finished an impressive 72% of the time at the rim and had 89 dunks this past season. Additionally, he's versatile defensively and excels as a drop big. He projects to be a second round pick in the 2024 NBA Draft.
2023: There were four freshmen who met the criteria of the Productive Young Athlete query this past season: Brandon Miller, Dereck Lively II, Jarace Walker, and Brice Sensabaugh. All four are expected to be first round picks in the 2023 NBA Draft, with Miller, Lively and Walker firmly in the consensus lottery conversation. NBA front offices may feel a level of increased comfort offering guaranteed money to one of these four players over their counterparts, knowing historically that 78% of players who hit the same statistical criteria played five-plus seasons in the NBA.
Conclusion: Why is this Useful?
The Productive Young Athlete query is best used when attempting to identify talent or when weighing the potential risks of drafting a player.
For example, if a college basketball player meets the four criteria during the season, then the player may be worth looking into. Similarly, if you're considering a player with a second round pick who's met the Productive Young Athlete query, it may be a sense of comfort that they historically have a 78% chance to play five-plus seasons in the NBA.
This is especially important to take into account when you realize only 26% of second round picks from the 1990-2017 NBA Drafts ended up playing at least five NBA seasons with a career 10-24 minutes per game or over 4000 career NBA minutes. Regardless, the PYA query should be used in conjunction with film, other key statistics, intangibles and medical information when evaluating a prospect.
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