NBA Draft: Three Mid-Major Gems Hiding in the Data

In the new era of data and the new era of NIL, attempting to find analytically-intriguing mid-major players is a problem NBA front offices, agents, and especially high-major college teams are looking to solve.

Every year, a handful of top mid-major players transfer up to high-major programs and compete on the best teams in the country. Take a look at Bennett Stirtz, Xaivian Lee, Yaxel Lendeborg, Donovan Dent, or Sam Orme, to give a few examples. In this current portal cycle, Gavin Doty, who averaged 18 points per game for Siena this past season as a sophomore, and has already announced he's transferring to Syracuse next season.

Here's a look at three freshmen who had standout seasons last year, backed by the data:

Roman Domon, Murray State

Bradley’s Ahmet Jonovic, left, defends against Murray State’s Roman Domon in the first half of their MVC college basketball game Sunday, March 1, 2026 at Carver Arena in Peoria. The Braves defeated the Racers 87-78. | MATT DAYHOFF/JOURNAL STAR / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Domon had an incredible freshman season for Murray State, as he averaged 14.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1.1 steals per game while shooting 64% at the rim (89 attempts), 44.1% on non-rim twos (68 attempts), 36.8% from beyond the arc (114 attempts), and 76.8% from the free throw line (220 attempts). Additionally, the 6-foot-9 guard had a knack for getting to the line, recording a very high .812 free-throw rate.

Domon's season wasn't just statistically impressive, it was actually query-hitting good. He met the Efficient Tall Freshman query: 41 of the 60 players (68%) who have met the criteria played five-plus years in the NBA or are currently in the league.

Something to keep in mind , especially in regards to the query, is that Roman Domon played professional basketball overseas prior to joining college basketball but was deemed a “freshman” by the NCAA due to keeping his amateur status and the “delayed enrollment” rule.

It has been reported that Domon will be returning to Murray State for his sophomore season.

Jake Hall, New Mexico

Oct 25, 2025; Pullman, WA, USA; New Mexico Lobos guard Jake Hall (23) controls the ball against the Washington State Cougars in the first half at Friel Court at Beasley Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-Imagn Images | James Snook-Imagn Images

The 6-foot-4, 200-pound guard averaged 16.4 points, 3.2 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 0.8 steals per game for New Mexico this past season. The 2025-26 All-MWC and MWC ROY shot 43.8% from three on 13.2 attempts per 100 possessions and 267 total attempts. Additionally, he was efficient otherwise--finishing 62.3% of his 69 rim attempts, 48.2% of his 85 non-rim two attempts, and 80% of his 105 free throw attempts.

Hall has a handful of off-the-dribble makes in his shot diet as well. While the 43.7% on catch-and-shoot threes is impressive in its own right, so is shooting 54.3% on off-the-dribble twos (46 attempts) and 41.5% on off-the-dribble threes (41 attempts).

While his assist percentage is only ten, Hall was also in the 80th percentile in points per possession in pick-and-roll ball handler possessions.

The rising sophomore entered the portal and, while film analysis will be the most important thing, his numbers tell a compelling story of a future high-major player.

It has been reported that Hall has entered the transfer portal with a "Do Not Contact" tag.

DJ Hall, Texas State

Hall was a 6-foot-7 freshman this past season who averaged 15.6 points, 7.7 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.4 steals, and 0.4 blocks per game while shooting 58.2% at the rim (182 attempts), 49.2% on non-rim twos (132 attempts), and 78.9% from the free throw line (147 attempts).

Additionally, Hall recorded a 9.4 offensive rebound percentage, 21.6 defensive rebound percentage, 16.2 assist percentage, and a 4.2 stock percentage this past season.

The rising sophomore is primed for a breakout season, and it has been reported that he will remain at Texas State as they enter the newly-formed Pac-12 Conference.