NBA Rookie Class Observations Through All-Star Break
It’s been an exciting NBA season thus far, as the current rookie class has made a tremendous impact around the league. Entering the 2023-24 campaign this class had high expectations and has absolutely lived up to the hype.
As good as this group of rookies has been collectively, it’s been fascinating to watch how each has progressed individually. Quite a few first-year players established themselves as legitimate impact players from the opening night tip. Others have emerged more recently with increased opportunity.
In either case, this is shaping up to be a special group. What have we learned about rookie class through the NBA All-Star Break?
Future Faces of the League
The best rookie classes in history have multiple players who ultimately have the on-court talent and off-court marketability to be one of the faces of the league. In this class, there are at least two players who truly are on the trajectory of being among the NBA's best players sooner than we may have ever expected.
For starters, Victor Wembanyama is a generational talent who is already a fan favorite worldwide. Not only is he a popular and unique player standing at 7-foot-4 with a modern skillset and two-way impact, but he's also averaging a double-double with roughly 20 points and 10 assists per game on average thus far.
In most seasons, what Wembanyama has been able to accomplish would make him a lock to win NBA Rookie of the Year. However, Chet Holmgren adds an interesting wrinkle to this class given he was actually drafted a year earlier than Wembanyama but missed all of last season with a foot injury, so is technically a rookie. Holmgren has much work to do in the final stretch of the season if he's truly going to take back the title as favorite for the award over Wembanyama. For the first three months of the season, he was without a doubt the best rookie, but that has sense changed.
At 7-foot-1, Holmgren is also a two-way talent who can space the floor and is an elite rim protector. The rivalry between the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs will likely see a new spark in the coming years as these two players lead their respective teams to deep postseason runs. In the meantime, Holmgren is the third-best player on a Thunder team with a top-three record in the NBA. His numbers may not be as impressive as Wembanyama's, but his impact on winning cannot be denied.
Between Wembanyama and Holmgren, this class has two players who could legitimately be in MVP conversations two or three years from now. Furthermore, there's several other current rookies who have clear All-NBA upside in the future.
All-Rookie Team Honors Will be Competitive
With how deep this rookie class is, earning a spot on an NBA All-Rookie Team this season will be extremely difficult. There's a unique blend of players putting up significant stats on bottoming teams and others playing key roles on playoff-caliber teams. What will voters value more?
It's still much too early to fully lock in the predictions for these teams, but if the season were to end today, it might look something like this:
First Team
- Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio Spurs)
- Chet Holmgren (Oklahoma City Thunder)
- Brandon Miller (Charlotte Hornets)
- Jaime Jaquez (Miami Heat)
- Brandin Podziemski (Golden State Warriors)
Second Team
- Dereck Lively (Dallas Mavericks)
- Keyonte George (Utah Jazz)
- Cam Whitmore (Houston Rockets)
- Ausar Thompson (Detroit Pistons)
- Scoot Henderson (Portland Trail Blazers)
Again, a lot will change over the final two months of the regular season. Even then, players like Cason Wallace (Oklahoma City Thunder), Amen Thompson (Houston Rockets), Jordan Hawkins (New Orleans Pelicans), Bilal Coulibaly (Washington Wizards), GG Jackson (Memphis Grizzlies) and Toumani Camara (Portland Trail Blazers) among others will have a real shot at earning NBA All-Rookie honors with a solid finish to the season.
Unexpected Breakouts
Especially early in a player's NBA career, it's common for their success to be measured relative to their draft position. As such, there's always a handful of players that fall to the second round or even go undrafted that are steals for their respective teams
Who fits that mold this season?.
Toumani Camara (Portland Trail Blazers)
Originally selected by the Phoenix Suns in the 2023 NBA Draft, Camara was dealt to Portland as part of the three-team deal that ultimately sent Damian Lillard to the Milwaukee Bucks. The opportunity to play for a rebuilding team has been a huge advantage for Camara, who has started in 32 games as a second-round pick. His energy and motor have been key in him carving out a significant role.
Trayce Jackson-Davis (Golden State Warriors)
Despite being one of the best college players in the country last season, Jackson-Davis fell to the very end of the second round of last summer's draft. Pinned for lacking the floor-spacing needed for a big in the modern NBA, he's overcome that deficiency and has still been a highly impactful rookie for the Warriors. He's taken the floor in 39 games this season, pulling down eight or more rebounds seven times already.
Craig Porter Jr. (Cleveland Cavaliers)
Although he went undrafted and originally signed a two-way contract, Porter Jr. has proven his value on one of the hottest teams in the NBA and recently earned a new four-year contract with the Cavaliers. The rookie has produced 6.5 points and 2.8 assists in just 14.7 minutes per game at the NBA level this season.
GG Jackson (Memphis Grizzlies)
It's taken injuries to key players in the Grizzlies rotation for Jackson to get a real opportunity, but he's made the most of it. Over his past 10 games, the youngest player in the NBA has averaged 14.0 points and 4.2 rebounds per game, including a recent 27-point outburst.
Having success as a rookie is extremely important, but having a long NBA career takes continued development. When looking back at NBA All-Rookie Teams of the past, those 10 players never end up being the best 10 players in that class when it’s all said and done.
Regardless, it’s safe to say this rookie class has the chance to be one of the best of the past several decades.
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