NBA Rookie Preview: Two Statistical Goals for Ace Bailey

As the 2025-26 NBA season marches into view, players and fans are now in the midst of the final stretch of the offseason.

For most NBA players, the new season means another chance to hoist the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy, or to reach the next level as an individual. For the current rookie class, the impending October games mean something entirely different. The 2025 Draft Class will make their league debuts in the coming months, truly fulfilling their dreams of becoming NBA players.

While it’s important for them to savor the moment, it’s imperative that each rookie approaches his early opportunity in stride, ready to do what’s needed to contribute. NBA teams are quick to pull the leash on underperforming young players, regardless of their talent level.

In the case of Ace Bailey, he'll have to quickly prove that he can translate his skillset as a 6-foot-8 shot-maker into valuable NBA production. This will the 19-year-old Rutgers product to progress as a featured scorer for the Utah Jazz as he would very much like to.

Bailey has a chance to earn a lot of responsibility for the Jazz this year. In particular, if he can meet this pair of statistical benchmarks within his role, he’ll likely embark on a highly successful rookie campaign.

Goal #1: Average a 56 TS%

With Bailey, his talent as a shot-creator and shot-maker from the perimeter is undeniable. He is a smooth handler with an impressive level of handling fluidity, who can seamlessly lace pull-up jumpers over any contest. However, what's less certain is his ability to have a shot diet consisting of efficient looks.

The 6-foot-8 forward may be a supremely talented shooter from around the floor, but contested jumpers are inherently an inefficient shot for all but a handful of players throughout NBA history. In order for Bailey to get off on the right foot in terms of making a positive impact with his scoring capabilities, he should look to obtain a diverse shot diet consisting of catch-and-shoot looks from beyond the arc, transition finishes, straight line drives and free throws in addition to contested jumpers.

Should Bailey be able to achieve a True Shooting Percentage of 56%, that'll have him just below the league average of 57.6% last year. It's a realistic mark for a rookie to establish himself as an efficient scorer at the NBA level after a mediocre 53.6% mark as a college freshman.

On the contrary, if Bailey is inefficient next year, it'll likely be tougher for him to progress to become a featured offensive option for Utah.

Goal #2: Average 2.5 Stocks (Steals & Blocks) Per Game

While the talk around Bailey is usually about his talent on the offensive end, he's a good defensive prospect as well. He utilizes his swift movement skills and 7-foot wingspan to be an impactful help defender on both the perimeter and at the rim. Last year, he averaged just over a pair of stocks per game for the Scarlet Knights.

Bailey's ability to translate some of that defensive success and build upon at the NBA level is crucial to his projection. Should he be able to be a disruptive defensive contributor along with his shooting ability, he should be able to remain a valuable wing deserving of playing time and opportunity, even while working through obstacles as an offensive creator. The bar of two-and-a-half stocks per game serves as an attainable proxy for this level of success.

On the other hand, should he not be able to bring much defensive impact, that puts a lot more pressure on Bailey to make a bigger offensive impact quickly, as he may not be given as long of a leash on the floor.