Best NBA Prop Bets Today (Predictions for Nikola Jokic, Stephon Castle, Jalen Brunson)

Breaking down the best prop bets for the NBA action on Monday, Dec. 29, including a pick for Denver Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokic.

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic is a great prop target on Monday. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

What better way to kick off the week than taking a few NBA player props in a loaded 11-game slate? 

There are a ton of matchups to bet on, but I’ve decided to narrow down a few prop picks for bettors that don’t want to get involved in a spread or a side on Dec. 29. 

Plenty of star players are set to take the floor, including MVP candidate Nikola Jokic, who is one of my favorite player prop targets against the Miami Heat. 

In total, I have four props, so let’s get into the odds and a breakdown for each play for what should be an exciting night in the Association. 

Best NBA Prop Bets for Monday, Dec. 29

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Nikola Jokic OVER 10.5 Assists (-135)

Nikola Jokic has been absolutely insane in the month of December, averaging 31.4 points, 12.3 rebounds and 11.3 assists per game, carrying Denver even with three starters out of the lineup.

The MVP candidate now takes on a Miami team that ranks in the bottom half of the league in opponent assists per game and is No. 1 in pace – a perfect opportunity for Jokic to rack up a huge offensive stat line.

This season, Jokic is averaging 11.1 assists on 18.1 potential assists per game, clearing this line in each of his last four contests.

I love getting him at this price to simply hit his season average in assists on Monday. 

Jalen Brunson OVER 29.5 Points (-108)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I’m backing Brunson against the Pelicans: 

New York Knicks star Jalen Brunson is averaging 29.5 points per game this season while shooting 48.0 percent from the field and 38.0 percent from 3. 

On Monday, he takes on a New Orleans Pelicans team that is down both Jose Alvarado and Herb Jones (two of the team’s best defenders). The Pelicans rank 27th in the league in defensive rating, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the Knicks’ offense has a big showing on Monday night.

Brunson has scored 30 or more points in 16 of his 28 games this season, and he’s taking a career-high 21.7 shots per game.

With Josh Hart out on Monday and Miles McBride questionable, the Knicks may need even more from Brunson to pick up a road win. New York has struggled on the road this season, so I wouldn’t be shocked if this ends up being a close game where Brunson takes a bunch of shots down the stretch. 

Oso Ighodaro OVER 6.5 Rebounds (-137)

Phoenix Suns big man Oso Ighodaro should have a major role on Monday against the Washington Wizards with Mark Williams (suspension) out for this matchup.

Ighodaro has clearly earned the backup minutes behind Williams over Nick Richards – who has been out of the rotation for most of December – so I’m shocked to see both centers at 6.5 boards in the prop market on Monday.

Washington ranks 28th in the NBA in rebounding percentage and 30th in opponent rebounds per game, so Ighodaro should be in line for a big game on the glass if he plays starter minutes.

The former second-round pick is averaging just 4.3 rebounds per game, but he started on Dec. 27 and grabbed 10 boards – his third time with seven or more boards in five games.

I’ll trust him against this terrible Washington team in an expanded role. 

Stephon Castle OVER 6.5 Assists (-111)

Even if De’Aaron Fox (questionable) plays in this game, I like Castle to clear his assists prop against Cleveland.

The Cavs are just 19th in the NBA in opponent assists per game this season, and Castle enters Monday's contest averaging 7.0 assists per game. The second-year guard has seven or more dimes in five of his last six games, and he's averaging 12.1 potential assists per game for the season.

If Fox sits, there should be a lot more playmaking for Castle in this matchup, but he's shown that he can initiate offense even when the two guards play together.

He's worth a look on Monday night against a Cavs defense that is just 16th in defensive rating in the 2025-26 season.

Josh Giddey 8+ Assists (-171)

Chicago Bulls guard Josh Giddey is averaging 9.2 assists per game this season, and he’s picked up at least eight dimes in 18 of his 29 games. 

He’s averaging 16.4 potential assists per night, which gives him a solid floor in this matchup with Minnesota – which does have one of the better defensive ratings in the league.

Still, Giddey has the highest usage rate (25.5 percent) of his career this season, and I moved the line on this prop down from 8.5 to have a little more flexibility on Monday. Giddey has cleared this line in five of his last six games, so he’s worth a look in what could be a high-scoring affair with the Wolves on Monday (the total is in the 240s). 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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