Scoot Henderson Will be Safe Pick in 2023 NBA Draft
The NBA draft was, for decades, a place where elite athleticism could catapult players into the high lottery, even if actual basketball skills were years away from being formed.
(Stromile Swift and Tyrus Thomas remain two of the best examples of players selected near the top of the draft who were by far better athletes than they were players and never lived up to their draft position.)
While athleticism today remains a wildly important tool, it is just that. A tool.
Not the direct indicator of success, as it used to be. For every Shawn Kemp or Amar'e Stoudemire, you'd circle through twenty Harold Miners and Jeremy Evanses, and eventually, NBA teams caught on.
Today, skills are in high demand, and raw athleticism needs to be accompanied by smart decisions, the ability to read the game, and on-ball capabilities. It's become a package deal, with the skills part now permanently in the driver's seat.
Enter Scoot Henderson, who is the most athletic point guard prospect since Ja Morant.
Henderson is unfathomable. Not only does his end-to-end speed rival that of young Russell Westbrook, his muscular frame is ahead of both Derrick Rose and John Wall at the same age. He's a powerhouse of an athlete, and he's heavily incorporated that power into his game, making his future success closely tied to his ability to run and jump better than his peers.
And yet, Henderson feels like a safe pick. He's pretty much cemented himself as the player coming off the board immediately after Victor Wembanyama this June, and no one is batting an eye at that presumption.
Here's why: Henderson, despite relying on his athleticism to a fair large extent, is more than just an athlete. He'll leverage his athleticism more than he'll actually use it.
Like a younger Westbrook, Henderson will begin to accelerate a few feet from outside the 3-point line and force his defender into back-peddling at a high gear, only to change the pace and slow down when that defender has overcommitted to that level of speed. The result is usually a fairly open mid-range jumper.
He'll do this in transition too where he knows his reputation precedes him. Defenders who pick him up will be at full sprint to get ahead. As soon as they commit to that pace, he'll cross them over and gain enough separation to create himself open lanes, be it for driving or passing.
Henderson seems keenly aware that he needs to use his athleticism as a tool, and round out his game to make that tool more of a choice than a need. He's often dissatisfied when he goes long stretches of not finding his rhythm on 3-pointers, and you can't help but spot disapproval all across his face when he makes an unforced turnover.
At just 19, Henderson isn't even close to a finished product, even if he holds himself to a standard where his game simply isn't yet.
So, where is his game?
After coming back from a nasal fracture in January, which kept him sidelined for 11 games, he's been ramping up his defensive impact. While I don't pretend to know what Henderson did in the 11 games off, watching film would be high on my list of guesses.
He's become a superbly aggressive defender, who uses his 200-pound frame to keep defenders off-rhythm.
Offensively, he's been a bit on a rough side lately, having failed to clock 20 points over his past seven games, while sporting a FG% in the mid-30's.
He's turned the ball over 3.6 times per game in that same stretch, but that may sound more negative than what it actually is. Whether it's a counterreaction to his shooting struggles, or just a natural evolutionary step, Henderson has been upping his assist rate, as he seems to be embracing the role of a true point guard.
One might be inclined to almost want Henderson to utilize his athleticism a smidge more, as he can get a step on virtually every defender in the G-League, and make it into the teeth of the defense. If nothing else, drawing fouls is going to be a key skill for him at the NBA level, so leaning into that would be wise.
Since February 23rd, Henderson has taken just 18 free throws over eight games, which is about 20 too few for a player with his size and power.
But all that said, for Henderson to prioritize his floor game is commendable. He seems utterly hell-bent on not wanting to fall into the trap of being just a slasher, and that's unquestionably a good thing.
Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
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