Rockets Given Solid Chance to Land Top-Three Playoff Seed

The Houston Rockets are undoubtedly expected to make the playoffs this season despite how crowded the Western Conference is. Last season, they burst onto the scene, climbing to relevance with a 52-30 record and capturing the No. 2 seed before a first-round playoff upset.

This season, Houston should be better, at least based on its new additions. Some key players were swapped out for more experienced rotation players, but the Rockets' big acquisition was Kevin Durant, who will fix a lot of their offensive struggles.

The question is not whether or not the Rockets will make the playoffs; it's where they will end up on the eight-seed scale. Can they remain a top-two or top-three seed in such a saturated conference, or will some of that inexperience and new rotation catch up to them?

It doesn't help that Fred VanVleet, Houston's floor general and veteran leader, will miss the season with a torn ACL. With all of this taken into account, ESPN's Basketball Power Index released odds for 23 teams in the standings. Dean Oliver and the BPI revealed that the Rockets have a solid 49% chance to repeat as a top-three seed in the West.

"This accounts for Fred VanVleet's season-ending injury, but BPI sees pretty good depth to compensate," Oliver wrote. "The net points metric had these Rockets as the bottom four players on the roster last season: Cam Whitmore, Dillon Brooks, Jalen Green and Reed Sheppard. Of those, only the second-year point guard Sheppard returns.

"Oh, and they got Kevin Durant."

Houston, with essentially a 50-50 shot at a top-three seed, means its playoff odds as a whole are likely high. Last season, the Rockets posted a top-five defensive rating in the league, and with a lot of their weaknesses on the offensive end fixed with Kevin Durant, the team should look more balanced.

The VanVleet will likely be a problem, at least to start the season. Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard are expected to step up as facilitators. Sheppard, a second-year guard who received minimal opportunities last season, will be thrust into a major role. His development will have to speed up more than anyone else in his draft class.

If the 21-year-old can't perform up to par, a midseason acquisition could shake things up and help mitigate Houston's issues. However, the Rockets looked elite in the preseason, going 4-0. Their offense looks reborn with Durant at the helm, giving hope that the regular season looks much better than expected.