2025 NFL Draft warning: If the Bears go EDGE in round one, they’ll regret it by pick 39

Let’s get this out of the way right now: The chances that those of us under the Chicago Bears’ umbrella will be happy with the first nine picks of the NFL Draft are slim.

As it stands now, it feels like the players who Bears GM Ryan Poles likely has at the top of Chicago’s draft board will probably be off the NFL’s draft board when the Bears are on the clock at the ten-spot. It might look a little something like this:

OT Will Campbell goes to New England at four.

RB Ashton Jeanty goes to Las Vegas at six.

OT Armand Membou goes to the New York Jets at seven.

TE Tyler Warren goes to New Orleans at nine.

According to an in-the-know Bears writer, that means welcoming a defensive end to Halas Hall.

EDGE of Insanity

In The Athletic’s NFL beat writer mock draft, Chicago scribe Kevin Fishbain has the Bears selecting Georgia EDGE Mykel Williams at ten, his thinking being:

“Here’s some synergy with 2018—when the Bears hired a first-time, offensive-minded head coach, but the first pick of the Matt Nagy era was Georgia linebacker Roquan Smith, who would massively help veteran defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s defense.

“Seven years later, Ryan Poles and first-time, offensive-minded head coach Ben Johnson get a weapon for veteran defensive coordinator Dennis Allen’s defense in Williams, who has the size and length that fits what Allen likes at the position. With Montez Sweat and Dayo Odeyingbo already on the roster, Williams doesn’t need to be more than a rotational edge rusher early on, as he can continue to grow into the position and help a Bears pass rush that sorely needs it.”

Can’t argue with Fish’s reasoning: The 2024 Bears’ pass rush was a big bowl of meh—40 sacks, tied for tenth-fewest in the league—and Williams, who’s been comped as impressively as Aldon Smith and as blah as Gregory Rousseau would be a perfectly swell addition to the Bears' roster.

But Fishbain offers a major caveat.

Starter Kit

When an NFL franchise has a top-ten pick, they have to nail it—and over the past decade, savvy GMs who've stepped to the plate at the ten-spot have (more-or-less) done just that:

2024: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Minnesota Vikings

Starter-in-waiting.

2023: Darnell Wright, OT, Chicago Bears

PFF’s 2024 16th-ranked tackle.

2022: Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets

Three consecutive 1,000-plus-yard seasons.

2021: DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

27 career touchdowns for defending Super Bowl champs.

2020: Jedrick Wills Jr., OT, Cleveland Browns

Immediate starter at left tackle; contributed to Browns’ 2020 playoff win over Steelers.

2019: Devin Bush, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers

All-Rookie Team; totaled 100-plus tackles and two interceptions as a rookie.

2018: Josh Rosen, QB, Arizona Cardinals

Bust.

2017: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

Two-time NFL MVP, three-time Super Bowl champion, three-time Super Bowl MVP, six-time Pro Bowler, two-time All-Pro.

2016: Eli Apple, CB, New York Giants

PFF’s 16th-ranked cornerback in 2024.

2015: Todd Gurley, RB, St. Louis Rams

Three-time Pro Bowler, 2015 Rookie of the year, 2017 Offensive Player of the Year.

So recent history tells us that Poles has a 70% chance of getting it right. (It would’ve been 80%, but Bush and Willis get dinged 5% apiece due to their respective injury histories.)

But if Fishbain gets it right—if Williams is the guy—Poles got it wrong.

End All, Be All

In my April 21 mock draft, I have seven, count ‘em, seven EDGEs coming off the board in round one (Abdul Carter to New England at four, Jalon Walker to Carolina at seven, Williams to Miami at 13, Mike Green to Atlanta at 15, James Pearce Jr. to Baltimore at 27, Shemar Stewart to Kansas City at 31, and Donovan Ezeiruaku to Philadelphia at 32.)

And I’m not on an island:

NFL Mock Draft Data Base’s consensus mock:: Six EDGEs

Chris Collinsworth on PFF: : Six EDGEs

Nate Tice on Yahoo : Six EDGEs

The aforementioned Athletic mock: Seven EDGEs

And NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah has ten EDGEs in the top-49 of his final big board .

This is a long, roundabout way of saying that EDGE is one of the draft’s deepest positions, and there’s no need for Poles to waste a high day one pick on a spot that can be (almost) equally addressed on day two.

Better Options

The Bears own a pair of lofty second-round picks (39 and 41), where they should have plenty of quality choices at defensive end, among them Arkansas’ Landon Jackson, Texas A&M’s Nic Scourton, and Ohio State’s JT Tuimoloau, all of whom could fill the role Fishbain suggests for Williams: Rotational player who needs to do some growing.

So if Jeanty et all are off the board at ten—and if Poles makes the right choice to kick the EDGE position down the road—he can grab the likes of Texas OT Kelvin Banks Jr., Michigan TE Colston Loveland, or North Carolina RB Omarion Hampton…y’know, dudes who can start on day one.

That said, if the first nine picks play out as above, the most logical choice would be for Poles to trade down and shoot for a Steward or an Ezeiruaku later in the evening, because the EDGE they'd land at ten might not be significantly better than the EDGE they’d get at 30. And adding some additional draft capital into the mix is never a bad thing.

That all would make the Chicago Bears’ umbrella a far happier place to be.