Bear Digest

Power rating leaves Chicago Bears longest shot for NFC North title

One power ranking system put the Bears in the top half of the NFL but their division's severity leaves them looking up at their biggest rivals.
Gene Chamberlain|
Detroit Lions defensive end Josh Paschal celebrates a fumble recovery against the Bears as Caleb Williams walks off the field.
Detroit Lions defensive end Josh Paschal celebrates a fumble recovery against the Bears as Caleb Williams walks off the field. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

The Bears continue to draw analysts' respect as an improved team but not one heading for the top of the NFC North during Ben Johnson's first year as coach.
In fact, according to ESPN guesstimates, they'll be in last place again.
The website released its power index projections for 2025 and Super Bowl chances on Wednesday and even after all of their offseason changes in personnel as well as head coach, the Bears have the worst NFC North power rating.
While it's the worst, they are at least ranked in the top half of the NFL at 16th. The Lions are fourth, the Packers eighth and Vikings 15th even with a QB who has no NFL experience.

"So, who comes out ahead?" Seth Walder wrote. "The Lions lead the way with a 41% shot to win the division, with the Packers clocking in at 25%. But they all have a chance, as even the Bears are at 15%."
The Bears hired Ben Johnson and defensive coordinator Dennis Allen, obtained three interior offensive linemen and drafted receiver help in the first two rounds to assist Caleb Williams, but they're apparently so buried after a 5-12 season that even these moves weren't enough to elevate them.

The Bears have 11 games against teams ranked higher than them in the ESPN FPI system and only six games against teams rated below them.
ESPN has used this FPI predictive rating system since 2015.

The ESPN system is heavily slanted toward offensive teams as seven of their top 10 teams in the index are teams that ranked top 10 last year in offense.
Teams averaged 22.9 points last year in the NFL, a higher average than in 2022 or 2023 but still not where it was in 2021 (23.0).

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.