Keys to the Game: How Bengals Can Beat Bills and Advance to AFC Championship Game

The Bengals are eyeing their second-consecutive trip to the AFC Championship game.

Author:
Nicole Zembrodt
Publish date:
Jan 21, 2023 12:14 PM EST

In this story:

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals hit the road to Buffalo to face the Bills in the AFC Divisional Round on Sunday.

They are currently 5.5-point underdogs in the contest. However, Joe Burrow doesn't feel like the underdog.

Burrow's calm demeanor and confidence has helped prevail Cincinnati to a nine-game win streak.

In that streak, they played the hardest schedule in the league. The Bengals are battle-tested and ready to prove they belong in the Super Bowl again.

It won't come easy as Buffalo poses a top-five offense and defense, while Cincinnati will be without Jonah Williams (knee) and Alex Cappa (ankle) as well as a doubtful Tre Flowers (hamstring).

Here are the keys to the Bengals moving onto the AFC Championship game.

Joe Burrow Spreads the Wealth

Cincinnati's offense was in a groove to start the Week 17 matchup prior to Damar Hamlin's cardiac arrest with 5:58 remaining in the first quarter.

Burrow was 4-of-4 for 52 yards and a touchdown. He hit three separate receivers as it appeared Burrow was clicking on all cylinders before the game's cancellation.

On all four of Burrow's completions, the offense was in a spread formation, a formation the offense has favored heavily as the season has gone on.

Of the benefits a spread offense has, Burrow has excelled in reading defensive coverages and making quick decisions.

Burrow’s 2.35 seconds average release this season was second to Tom Brady (2.28).

The third-year veteran may rank towards the bottom of the league in average depth per target (6.8 yards per attempt), but his quick release allows the ball to get to his skill players and lets them do the work after the catch. The Bengals' receivers finished with 2,124 yards after catch in the regular season (7th in the NFL).

Along with the success of Burrow able to get the ball out early, opposing defenses haven't been able to blitz. When blitzed, Burrow has a passer rating of 112.3, 12 touchdowns, and three interceptions.

Burrow's quick hand and success against blitzes has forced defenses to rely on their defensive line to apply pressure and drop the rest of their defense into a zone.

Buffalo's pash rush has looked much different since Von Miller went down with an ACL tear on Thanksgiving Day.

Matt Milano had two of the Bills four sacks last week against the Dolphins. Milano, Taron Johnson, and Tremaine Edmunds combined for five of the Bills' pressures.

This week could be a different story with Cincinnati missing three of their starting offensive linemen, but as long as Burrow is given enough time by the line to find one of his weapons, Burrow could be in for a big day.

Contain Josh Allen

Allen has big play making abilities with both his arm and legs. At his size, he is one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the league.

In the Wild Card Round against Miami, Allen attempted 13 passes of 20 or more yards. He consistently looks downfield to make an explosive play with his strong arm.

Allen was second in the NFL to Patrick Mahomes (13) with 12 completed passes of 40 or more yards. The quarterback had 51 completions for 20 or more yards.

He is one of the best at extending plays whether it's scrambling out of the pocket or climbing the pocket to avoid pressure to hit his receivers. And when he can't find an open receiver, he'll take the ball himself.

Allen has 782 rushing yards on 128 attempts (6.1 yards per carry) including the playoffs.

However, Allen has been sloppy protecting the ball this season, which is one area the Bengals' defense is hoping to take advantage of.

Allen finished the regular season leading the NFL in turnovers (19) in 16 games. The quarterback has kept the turnover sheet clean in just three games this season.

Last week's game was a prime example of how his turnover woes can change a game. The Bills hopped out to a 17-0 lead against the Dolphins. Three of their next five drives ended in an Allen turnover (two interceptions, one fumble), which allowed Miami to take a 24-20 lead in the third quarter. They gave up a season-high 18 points off of turnovers.

Although Buffalo ultimately won, his turnovers were the highlight of the game.

Cincinnati has forced 26 turnovers this season (including the playoffs) and a number of them have come in game-determining situations.

Another area the Bengals could contain Allen is using a spy to limit his rushing abilities. There were talks of using Logan Wilson in that role in Week 17, but the game wasn't far enough in to see if Lou Anarumo was going to use that method on the defense.

Anarumo is one of the best at defensive schemes against certain opposing players' skill sets. Cincinnati doesn't blitz much (20.4% of the time), but Miami had great success with their blitz calls against Allen last week.

The defensive coordinator may start the game with one approach and switch to another at one point in the game depending on how Allen is responding to his play calls. Anarumo's in-game adjustments have been a key part in the team's success this season.

"Sure-Legged" Evan McPherson

McPherson was perfect last postseason as his leg willed the Bengals to wins over the Titans and Chiefs on their Super Bowl run.

However, the kicker has been inconsistent this season. McPherson finished the regular season 24-of-29 on field goals and 40-of-44 on extra points. He made his lone field goal try last week in the Wild Card Round, but missed one of his two extra point attempts.

Cincinnati's offense was able to make up for the missed extra point with a successful two-point conversion.

Against a team like Buffalo, McPherson will need to clean up the mistakes and capitalize on all scoring opportunities. This game is likely to be a one-score game and come down to the kickers.

McPherson's prevailed in clutch situations before and he can do it again come Sunday.

Cincinnati and Buffalo meet in the divisional round this Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on CBS. The game is available via fuboTV—start your free trial here.

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