What's next for A.J. Green and the Bengals now that the deadline for a long-term extension has passed?
CINCINNATI — A.J. Green and the Bengals didn't agree to a long-term extension before Wednesday's 4 p.m. deadline, which means the seven-time Pro Bowler will play on the franchise tag this season.
Signing the 2011 first-round pick to a long-term deal was always going to be difficult.
Green, who is turning 32 later this month, missed all of 2019 with an ankle injury. He's missed 29 of a possible 64 games over the past four seasons.
His complex injury history, along with his age gave the Bengals pause about signing him to a multi-year deal. When he is healthy, he's still one of the best wide receivers in the NFL.
Green was on pace for 1,374 yards and 12 touchdowns through eight games in 2018. He was a big reason why the Bengals got off to a 4-1 start and were 5-3 at the midway point of the season.
Green has been the Bengals' most valuable player over the past decade.
They are 66-44-1 in regular season games with Green in the lineup.
Cincinnati is 7-25-1 in the regular season without Green since 2014. They were 5-10-1 without him before he missed all of last season.
The team knows how valuable he is, which is why a long-term deal hadn't been ruled out this offseason.
Unfortunately, the coronavirus pandemic added another layer to an already complex negotiation.
The Bengals and the other 31 NFL teams have no idea how COVID-19 is going to impact the salary cap in 2021 and beyond. Cincinnati is projected to have over $80 million in cap space next season, but that could change quickly if fans can't attend games in 2020.
Bengals owner Mike Brown can't ignore what's going on in the world. What happens if the entire season gets cancelled and the Bengals are scheduled to pay big money to a 33-year-old wide receiver that hasn't been on the field in two and a half years?
It's a risk the Bengals couldn't take. There's too much uncertainty surrounding the league at this moment.
Training camp is scheduled to begin on July 28, but no one knows if it will actually start on time.
What's Next?
Green will make $17.9 million to catch passes from rookie quarterback Joe Burrow this season. He's 100 percent healthy and has spent the offseason training in Atlanta.
The Bengals cannot negotiate a new contract with him until the end of the regular season.
That means Cincinnati still has a window to sign Green to a long-term deal before he hits free agency.
The Bengals could also use the franchise tag on the star wide receiver for a second-straight season, but it would be more costly. They would have to pay him 120 percent of his 2020 salary, which would be an estimated $21.48 million.
William Jackson III, Joe Mixon and Carl Lawson are entering the final year of their contracts. All three players could also be franchise tag candidates if they play well this season.
The Bengals have made it clear that they hope to sign Mixon to a long-term extension this offseason.
Training Camp
Green hasn't signed his franchise tender and he doesn't have to anytime soon. He could choose to stay home instead of reporting to training camp.
He could skip all of camp and the preseason and still get paid his full salary ($17.9 million) in 2020. As long as Green reports the week before the first game, he won't lose any money.
He also has the option of missing games, which seems unlikely, but is still a possibility. Instead of signing his franchise tender before the season, he could wait days, even weeks and still accrue a full season.
As long as Green reports to the team and signs the tender by Week 10, he will be able to become a free agent next offseason.
In the past he's said he would play under the tag. That doesn't mean he'll be at Paul Brown Stadium at the end of the month when players are scheduled to report for training camp.
Trade Speculation
Green will likely be the subject of plenty of trade rumors again this season. Most projections have Cincinnati finishing in last place in the AFC North.
If they struggle in 2020, there will be plenty of teams that are interested in the veteran wide receiver. Last year, the Patriots were one of the organizations that expressed interest in Green and he hadn't played a snap due to an ankle injury.
If he can stay healthy and shows he's still capable of playing at a high level, then there will be plenty of teams that inquire about him before the trade deadline.
It would also put the Bengals in a dilemma. Sure, they could trade Green this year before the deadline, but what if he plays well with Burrow? Why trade a guy that can help your young quarterback succeed?
It's also worth noting that if Green signs with another team in free agency next offseason, the Bengals could only receive a fifth-round compensatory pick in return because of the NFL's '30 and 10' rule. Green is over 30-years-old and will have spent 10 seasons with the Bengals. A fifth-round pick would be a best-case scenario if he signed elsewhere and they wouldn't be able to use that draft selection until 2022.
If they want future compensation for him, then they'd be wise to trade him during the season. That's still an unlikely scenario.
They've made it clear that they think Green can be a big part of their future. They want him to remain in Cincinnati long-term, but his health and the coronavirus pandemic are two major question marks that got in the way of that this offseason.
