Projecting CB Patrick Surtain II's Contract Extension with Broncos

Patrick Surtain II has cemented his status as one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL-- if not the top cornerback. He's now eligible for an extension and is certain to get a massive contract.

The question remains as to whether the Denver Broncos will get him extended this season or wait until after the season. There are pros and cons to doing it this season or waiting until after the season, but if the Broncos truly believe Surtain is a keeper, they don't want to hold off an extension any longer than before the start of the 2025 season.

We've seen some other defensive backs agree to new contracts, with some re-setting the market to a degree. One may wonder how much Surtain may re-set the market when his extension is finalized.

What might be a possible extension to offer to Surtain? Let's look at a few players who got recent extensions that were trumpeted as re-setting the market.

Details on the Two "Market-Resetting" Contracts

First, there's cornerback L'Jarius Sneed, who the Kansas City Chiefs tagged and then traded to the Titans. The Titans then signed Sneed to a four-year deal with $51.5M fully guaranteed -- the most guarantees for a cornerback thus far.

But while Sneed may have re-set the market for full guarantees, he didn't re-set it otherwise. He got $55M in total guarantees, and his APY salary came in at $19.1M. Neither is the most for a cornerback.

Then comes safety Antoine Winfield Jr., who the Tampa Bay Buccaneers tagged, then recently signed to a four-year, $84.1M contract. He got the highest APY salary for any defensive back at $21.025M.

However, Winfield's deal pales in comparison when you look at guaranteed money. He got $45M in full guarantees, the most for a safety, but didn't surpass Sneed. Furthermore, he got no additional guarantees beyond that $45M.

As far as defensive backs go, Denzel Ward still holds the bragging rights for the most in total guarantees at $71.25M. Thus, there's one contract bar that hasn't been re-set.

If Surtain is seeking a contract to truly re-set the market, he needs to surpass all three players on an APY salary, full guarantees, and total guarantees.

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What to Consider in an Extension

I put together a potential contract extension for Surtain, should the Broncos agree to an extension with him this season. My objectives in this extension are:

To ensure Surtain's cap number stays about the same for 2024.
To give the Broncos a way to lower his cap number in 2025 and possibly 2026.
To avoid using void years (which won't be difficult in this case).
To avoid a big re-set in APY salary but allow for a re-set when it comes to guaranteed money.

Regarding APY salary, while it gets talked up a lot, it's not the most meaningful aspect of a contract. Total and fullguarantees matter more, along with how much of the total contract is fully guaranteed and cash flows.

With that in mind, here's what I came up with...

The Contract Proposal

I used Over the Cap's contract constructor to put a proposal together. Here's the breakdown of the contract:

2024: $10M signing bonus, $1.5M base salary, fully guaranteed. Surtain's $2.46M roster bonus becomes part of the signing bonus, and I slightly bumped up his base salary. He'll have a cap charge of $6.651M, which is slightly lower than his current cap charge of $6.669M.

2025: $12M base salary, $10M roster bonus, fully guaranteed. This gives him a cap charge of $22M. However, I intend to convert the roster bonus into a signing bonus, if necessary, to get more cap space.

2026: $12M base salary, $10M roster bonus, fully guaranteed. The cap charge is again $22M. Once again, I can convert the roster bonus into a signing bonus if necessary to get more cap space.

2027: $22M base salary, of which $10M is fully guaranteed upon signing. The remaining $12M is injury-only guaranteed but will vest to a full guarantee if Surtain is on the roster on the fifth day of the 2026 league year. The cap charge is $22M.

2028: $22M base salary, of which $5M is injury-only guaranteed and vests to a full guarantee if Surtain is on the roster on the fifth day of the 2028 league year. I added this guarantee to raise the total guarantees in the deal. The cap charge is $22M.

2029 and 2030: $24M base salary each year. The cap charge is $24M each year.

Do note, that if the roster bonuses get converted into signing bonuses, the cap charges for 2026 and beyond will rise. However, if the base salary cap continues to increase, the Broncos should be able to manage any cap charges if it's necessary to convert the roster bonuses.

The contract itself would get billed as a seven-year, $147.5M contract, which comes to a $21.07M APY salary. Surtain barely passes Winfield in this aspect.

However, when it comes to the money that matters, he blows the market away. Surtain gets $65M in full guarantees, which is $14M more than Sneed. He also gets $82.5M in total guarantees, which is $11.5M more than Ward.

Furthermore, if you only look at the new money, Surtain effectively gets a $24.8M APY salary. Depending on how you look at the deal, this would be a generous offer for Surtain.

Bottom Line

It remains to be seen how the Broncos will finalize a new deal for Surtain. But they might be able to get it done by giving Surtain more in guaranteed money -- in particular, by ensuring he gets more full guarantees and more total guarantees than any other defensive back.

A contract could look different if the Broncos extend him after the 2024 season. The new contract would take effect in 2025, then lower his cap charge that year.

I do expect Surtain to re-set the market to some degree, but if he wants the best contract, he'll want to surpass Sneed's full guarantees and Ward's total guarantees, regardless of other details.

The only question that remains is how soon the Broncos get a deal done. But among the players who are potential candidates for extensions, Surtain is the easiest choice.

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