The Cost of Trading Kyler Murray
Let's make one thing very, very clear: The Arizona Cardinals should not trade Kyler Murray.
In a season where the Cardinals are 4-8 and have fallen behind every expectation for the year, there's a handful of fans who wish to rid the franchise of Murray and move on to other adventures.
To save a lot of time here - no. Arizona has long waited for a franchise quarterback of their own to walk through those doors, and while Murray is certainly falling short in some aspects, running him out of town only to try and replace him with a guy who can only hope he's as talented as Murray would just be silly.
Yet you can't really rule anything out, especially if the Cardinals follow through with a change of scenery at either head coach or general manager. There's a chance (albeit very small) a new regime enters Arizona and decides to go a different direction.
Murray recently inked a five-year, $230.5 million deal which includes a $29,035,000 signing bonus and $189,500,000 guaranteed according to Spotrac. Murray will make an average annual salary of $46,100,000.
Here's what it would cost, from a salary perspective, to trade Murray:
ESPN's Dan Graziano took a look at 12 different quarterback contracts - ranging from Aaron Rodgers to Jimmy Garoppolo - in discussed how complicated it would be (salary wise) to move them.
Murray's new deal does complicate things down the road, but there is a window that would be optimal for a deal says Graziano.
"The key date for the Cardinals is the start of the 2024 league year, at which time nearly $31 million in guaranteed 2025 salary and bonuses becomes fully guaranteed. If the Cardinals decide to cut Murray after the 2023 season, they'll have paid him $103.3 million for two years of service and they'd incur a dead-money cap hit of about $81.5 million in 2024 (or, if they cut him post-June 1, $48.3 million in 2024 and $33.2 million in 2025)," said Graziano.
"If the Cardinals want to trade Murray after this season, and if they were able to do so before picking up the 2023 option, they would carry just a $23.228 million dead-money charge on their 2023 cap. But that would require them to persuade a team to take on a contract that pays Murray a guaranteed $75 million or so over the next two years."
In short, the sooner the better if the Cardinals want to move on. Here's a yearly breakdown of Murray's deal via Spotrac:
Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio reported upwards of around 30 bonuses (roster, performance, etc.) for Murray, which you can find detailed here.
"The contract has $160 million guaranteed for injury at signing, and $103.3 million fully guaranteed at signing. A total of $9.315 million is tied to participation in the offseason program, the most for any player in the league," said Florio.
"Per-game roster bonuses hinge $4.25 million on participation in games, also the most for any quarterback in the league."
Arizona would need to find a team that both has the salary cap to make things happen, and also a need for a franchise quarterback. Projecting into the future is tough when it comes to cap space, while teams who truly need a passer may be in position to draft or move up in the draft to take one of the top quarterbacks in this year's class.
Ultimately, Murray is likely to stay in the desert. There's too many reasons for Murray to remain with the Cardinals despite cries from the outside.
Should Arizona want to move on, it could get quite costly if they don't move him in a timely manner.
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