A Way-Too-Early Projection Of The Chargers' 2024 Win-Loss Record Under Jim Harbaugh

Your Los Angeles Chargers have a lot to sort out between now and the start of their 2024 NFL season.

We do know LA's schedule heading into the year, and we can safely assume that, even if very few changes are made to the club's personnel by new general manager Joe Hortiz thanks to some cap issues, the addition of new head coach Jim Harbaugh will make for a far stronger squad, at least in late-game situations.

LA will face off against its AFC West competitors twice. Beyond the newly re-crowned world champion Kansas City Chiefs (who are clearly better than their 11-6 regular season record might have suggested), the rest of the conference is pretty beatable. The AFC West also boasts the Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders. Denver finished the 2023 season at a middling 8-9 amidst some quarterback turmoil. With mediocre ex-Bolts GM Tom Telesco now at the helm for Las Vegas, they shouldn't be much of a threat.

The Chargers will square off against two tough teams at home, in perpetual AFC also-rans the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals. Those feel like losses to me. But the Bolts should have a decent shot against the rest of their home slate: the Tennessee Titans (6-11 last year), New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (both of whom finished at 9-8 in 2023).

Los Angeles will have two likely gimme games on the road, playing the lowly New England Patriots (the Pats will have a shot at drafting an elite college quarterback this spring, but it's hard to foresee the team gelling into a formidable foe next year regardless of how good its top rookie is) and Carolina Panthers (who may be fielding the worst starting quarterback in football).

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns finished last year at 10-7 and 11-6, respectively, and will host LA. Cleveland finished the season surprisingly strong with a stunningly revived Joe Flacco, but I for one am pessimistic the team will perform particularly well if its $230 million starter returns over the former Super Bowl MVP. Pittsburgh under Mike Tomlin has been impressively steady, and they will be tough to be at Acrisure Stadium. The Atlanta Falcons finished at 7-10 on the year, but will have an opportunity to add a top quarterback to an otherwise competent roster. The Arizona Cardinals were without their stud signal caller for much of the 2023 season, and they too will have a top 10 draft pick. They finished at a brutal 4-13, although starting quarterback Kyler Murray played just eight games in returning from an ACL tear midseason. Arizona has the No. 4 pick this year. They're vulnerable.

So assuming Harbaugh improves the club's late-game performances with quarterback Justin Herbert and wide receiver Keenan Allen both back, and that LA adds some win-now offensive help (perhaps a tight end or running back upgrade?) in this spring's draft, how will this team perform next year?

Based on the current state of these teams, I project LA will finish with a 9-8 record on the season and a possible wild card berth. But who knows? Maybe Joe Hortiz will make a bunch of transactions to bolster the club's two big positional weaknesses: its run game and defense.